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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Re: Rollout: Mutual holding game

SubjectAuthor
* Mutual holding gameTimothy Chow
`* Rollout: Mutual holding gameTimothy Chow
 `* Re: Rollout: Mutual holding gameJ R
  `* Re: Rollout: Mutual holding gamepeps...@gmail.com
   `* Re: Rollout: Mutual holding gameTimothy Chow
    +- Re: Rollout: Mutual holding gamepeps...@gmail.com
    `* Re: Rollout: Mutual holding gameStick Rice
     `* Re: Rollout: Mutual holding gameTimothy Chow
      `- Re: Rollout: Mutual holding gameStick Rice

1
Mutual holding game

<srl381$g2u$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Mutual holding game
Date: Tue, 11 Jan 2022 18:18:25 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 11 Jan 2022 23:18 UTC

XGID=--B---EbB----C--bcceB---A-:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O X X |
| X O O O | | O X |
| X O O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X O | | X X |
| X O | | X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 153 O: 129 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 41

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Mutual holding game

<srrvi0$ijb$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Mutual holding game
Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2022 08:58:21 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 14 Jan 2022 13:58 UTC

XGID=--B---EbB----C--bcceB---A-:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O X X |
| X O O O | | O X |
| X O O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X O | | X X |
| X O | | X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 153 O: 129 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 41

Behind in the race, I eschewed 24/20 because I wanted more contact.
Well, according to XG, maximizing contact is the right idea at DMP
but loses too many gammons for money.

Not an exception to Stick's DMP rule, of course, since it's obvious
(to Stick) that staying back loses too many gammons.

1. Rollout¹ 24/20 6/5 eq:-0.430
Player: 36.08% (G:5.26% B:0.16%)
Opponent: 63.92% (G:7.04% B:0.14%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.444..-0.416) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/9 6/5 eq:-0.509 (-0.079)
Player: 36.52% (G:8.21% B:0.27%)
Opponent: 63.48% (G:14.09% B:0.52%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.522..-0.496) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/8 eq:-0.529 (-0.099)
Player: 35.09% (G:6.32% B:0.18%)
Opponent: 64.91% (G:10.36% B:0.33%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.540..-0.517) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
DMP
---

XGID=--B---EbB----C--bcceB---A-:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:1:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 1 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O X X |
| X O O O | | O X |
| X O O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X O | | X X |
| X O | | X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 153 O: 129 X-O: 0-0/1
Cube: 1
X to play 41

1. Rollout¹ 13/9 6/5 eq:-0.259
Player: 37.03% (G:7.76% B:0.80%)
Opponent: 62.97% (G:19.09% B:1.59%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.264..-0.254) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/20 6/5 eq:-0.286 (-0.027)
Player: 35.68% (G:4.38% B:0.18%)
Opponent: 64.32% (G:9.43% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.290..-0.282) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/4 6/5 eq:-0.288 (-0.028)
Player: 35.62% (G:7.43% B:0.37%)
Opponent: 64.38% (G:19.58% B:1.54%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.293..-0.283) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 13/8 eq:-0.293 (-0.034)
Player: 35.34% (G:6.28% B:0.34%)
Opponent: 64.66% (G:14.95% B:0.71%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.298..-0.289) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: Mutual holding game

<dc2c12b6-7de3-47a3-ba64-2f7fb273a27cn@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: Rollout: Mutual holding game
From: jacob.r...@gmail.com (J R)
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 by: J R - Fri, 14 Jan 2022 19:52 UTC

On Friday, January 14, 2022 at 8:58:26 AM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
> XGID=--B---EbB----C--bcceB---A-:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O O | | O X X |
> | X O O O | | O X |
> | X O O | | O |
> | | | O |
> | | | O |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | X |
> | | | X |
> | | | X |
> | X O | | X X |
> | X O | | X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 153 O: 129 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 41
> Behind in the race, I eschewed 24/20 because I wanted more contact.
> Well, according to XG, maximizing contact is the right idea at DMP
> but loses too many gammons for money.
>
> Not an exception to Stick's DMP rule, of course, since it's obvious
> (to Stick) that staying back loses too many gammons.
>
> 1. Rollout¹ 24/20 6/5 eq:-0.430
> Player: 36.08% (G:5.26% B:0.16%)
> Opponent: 63.92% (G:7.04% B:0.14%)
> Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.444..-0.416) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 13/9 6/5 eq:-0.509 (-0.079)
> Player: 36.52% (G:8.21% B:0.27%)
> Opponent: 63.48% (G:14.09% B:0.52%)
> Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.522..-0.496) - [0.0%]
>
> 3. Rollout¹ 13/8 eq:-0.529 (-0.099)
> Player: 35.09% (G:6.32% B:0.18%)
> Opponent: 64.91% (G:10.36% B:0.33%)
> Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.540..-0.517) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
>
> ---
> DMP
> ---
>
> XGID=--B---EbB----C--bcceB---A-:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:1:10
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0 1 pt.(s) match.
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O O | | O X X |
> | X O O O | | O X |
> | X O O | | O |
> | | | O |
> | | | O |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | X |
> | | | X |
> | | | X |
> | X O | | X X |
> | X O | | X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 153 O: 129 X-O: 0-0/1
> Cube: 1
> X to play 41
> 1. Rollout¹ 13/9 6/5 eq:-0.259
> Player: 37.03% (G:7.76% B:0.80%)
> Opponent: 62.97% (G:19.09% B:1.59%)
> Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.264..-0.254) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 24/20 6/5 eq:-0.286 (-0.027)
> Player: 35.68% (G:4.38% B:0.18%)
> Opponent: 64.32% (G:9.43% B:0.22%)
> Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.290..-0.282) - [0.0%]
>
> 3. Rollout¹ 8/4 6/5 eq:-0.288 (-0.028)
> Player: 35.62% (G:7.43% B:0.37%)
> Opponent: 64.38% (G:19.58% B:1.54%)
> Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.293..-0.283) - [0.0%]
>
> 4. Rollout¹ 13/8 eq:-0.293 (-0.034)
> Player: 35.34% (G:6.28% B:0.34%)
> Opponent: 64.66% (G:14.95% B:0.71%)
> Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.298..-0.289) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

Or not an exception to my dmp rule because it doesn't fit the criteria but you know, whatever you want.

Stick

Re: Rollout: Mutual holding game

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Subject: Re: Rollout: Mutual holding game
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Fri, 14 Jan 2022 20:14 UTC

On Friday, January 14, 2022 at 7:52:06 PM UTC, J R wrote:
> On Friday, January 14, 2022 at 8:58:26 AM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
> > XGID=--B---EbB----C--bcceB---A-:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10
> >
> > X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | X O O O | | O X X |
> > | X O O O | | O X |
> > | X O O | | O |
> > | | | O |
> > | | | O |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | | X |
> > | | | X |
> > | | | X |
> > | X O | | X X |
> > | X O | | X X |
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 153 O: 129 X-O: 0-0
> > Cube: 1
> > X to play 41
> > Behind in the race, I eschewed 24/20 because I wanted more contact.
> > Well, according to XG, maximizing contact is the right idea at DMP
> > but loses too many gammons for money.
> >
> > Not an exception to Stick's DMP rule, of course, since it's obvious
> > (to Stick) that staying back loses too many gammons.
> >
> > 1. Rollout¹ 24/20 6/5 eq:-0.430
> > Player: 36.08% (G:5.26% B:0.16%)
> > Opponent: 63.92% (G:7.04% B:0.14%)
> > Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.444..-0.416) - [100.0%]
> >
> > 2. Rollout¹ 13/9 6/5 eq:-0.509 (-0.079)
> > Player: 36.52% (G:8.21% B:0.27%)
> > Opponent: 63.48% (G:14.09% B:0.52%)
> > Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.522..-0.496) - [0.0%]
> >
> > 3. Rollout¹ 13/8 eq:-0.529 (-0.099)
> > Player: 35.09% (G:6.32% B:0.18%)
> > Opponent: 64.91% (G:10.36% B:0.33%)
> > Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.540..-0.517) - [0.0%]
> >
> > ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> > Dice Seed: 271828
> > Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
> >
> > eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
> >
> > ---
> > DMP
> > ---
> >
> > XGID=--B---EbB----C--bcceB---A-:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:1:10
> > X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> > Score is X:0 O:0 1 pt.(s) match.
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | X O O O | | O X X |
> > | X O O O | | O X |
> > | X O O | | O |
> > | | | O |
> > | | | O |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | | X |
> > | | | X |
> > | | | X |
> > | X O | | X X |
> > | X O | | X X |
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 153 O: 129 X-O: 0-0/1
> > Cube: 1
> > X to play 41
> > 1. Rollout¹ 13/9 6/5 eq:-0.259
> > Player: 37.03% (G:7.76% B:0.80%)
> > Opponent: 62.97% (G:19.09% B:1.59%)
> > Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.264..-0.254) - [100.0%]
> >
> > 2. Rollout¹ 24/20 6/5 eq:-0.286 (-0.027)
> > Player: 35.68% (G:4.38% B:0.18%)
> > Opponent: 64.32% (G:9.43% B:0.22%)
> > Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.290..-0.282) - [0.0%]
> >
> > 3. Rollout¹ 8/4 6/5 eq:-0.288 (-0.028)
> > Player: 35.62% (G:7.43% B:0.37%)
> > Opponent: 64.38% (G:19.58% B:1.54%)
> > Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.293..-0.283) - [0.0%]
> >
> > 4. Rollout¹ 13/8 eq:-0.293 (-0.034)
> > Player: 35.34% (G:6.28% B:0.34%)
> > Opponent: 64.66% (G:14.95% B:0.71%)
> > Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.298..-0.289) - [0.0%]
> >
> > ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> > Dice Seed: 271828
> > Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
> >
> > eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
> >
> > ---
> > Tim Chow
> Or not an exception to my dmp rule because it doesn't fit the criteria but you know, whatever you want.
>
> Stick

I agree with Stick on this one. I think Stick's point is to be suspicious of eschewing plays which would be clearly correct at DMP,
in the hope of gaining more gammons, or losing fewer gammons.
Here, the plays are very close at DMP so it doesn't contradict Stick's adage (although a lot of other positions do).

Paul

Re: Rollout: Mutual holding game

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Rollout: Mutual holding game
Date: Sat, 15 Jan 2022 12:07:55 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 15 Jan 2022 17:07 UTC

On 1/14/2022 3:14 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

>>> 1. Rollout¹ 13/9 6/5 eq:-0.259
>>>
>>> 2. Rollout¹ 24/20 6/5 eq:-0.286 (-0.027)
>>
>> Or not an exception to my dmp rule because it doesn't fit the criteria but you know, whatever you want.

Yes, of course there are always many ways to explain why a
position doesn't violate your DMP rule.

> I agree with Stick on this one. I think Stick's point is to be suspicious of eschewing plays which would be clearly correct at DMP,
> in the hope of gaining more gammons, or losing fewer gammons.
> Here, the plays are very close at DMP so it doesn't contradict Stick's adage (although a lot of other positions do).

Normally, Stick wouldn't call a difference of -0.027 at DMP
"very close." It would be clear.

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: Mutual holding game

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Subject: Re: Rollout: Mutual holding game
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Sat, 15 Jan 2022 18:13 UTC

On Saturday, January 15, 2022 at 5:07:59 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
> On 1/14/2022 3:14 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
>
> >>> 1. Rollout¹ 13/9 6/5 eq:-0.259
> >>>
> >>> 2. Rollout¹ 24/20 6/5 eq:-0.286 (-0.027)
> >>
> >> Or not an exception to my dmp rule because it doesn't fit the criteria but you know, whatever you want.
> Yes, of course there are always many ways to explain why a
> position doesn't violate your DMP rule.
> > I agree with Stick on this one. I think Stick's point is to be suspicious of eschewing plays which would be clearly correct at DMP,
> > in the hope of gaining more gammons, or losing fewer gammons.
> > Here, the plays are very close at DMP so it doesn't contradict Stick's adage (although a lot of other positions do).
> Normally, Stick wouldn't call a difference of -0.027 at DMP
> "very close." It would be clear.

You're correct about Stick saying that small differences in equity are "clear". But I don't think that contradicts what I said, and it
leads to an interesting (to me) philosophical aside.

Suppose that A says (in my opinion correctly) "Serena Williams is a truly great tennis player" but has also said (in my opinion wrongly) "No truly great tennis player would ever serve a double fault."
Then I would argue that A's assertion about the greatness of Williams is correct anyway, even though the reasoning of A can be used to contradict A's valid assertion.

Paul

Re: Rollout: Mutual holding game

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Subject: Re: Rollout: Mutual holding game
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Mon, 17 Jan 2022 22:03 UTC

On Saturday, January 15, 2022 at 12:07:59 PM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
> On 1/14/2022 3:14 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
>
> >>> 1. Rollout¹ 13/9 6/5 eq:-0.259
> >>>
> >>> 2. Rollout¹ 24/20 6/5 eq:-0.286 (-0.027)
> >>
> >> Or not an exception to my dmp rule because it doesn't fit the criteria but you know, whatever you want.
> Yes, of course there are always many ways to explain why a
> position doesn't violate your DMP rule.
> > I agree with Stick on this one. I think Stick's point is to be suspicious of eschewing plays which would be clearly correct at DMP,
> > in the hope of gaining more gammons, or losing fewer gammons.
> > Here, the plays are very close at DMP so it doesn't contradict Stick's adage (although a lot of other positions do).
> Normally, Stick wouldn't call a difference of -0.027 at DMP
> "very close." It would be clear.
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

I don't like putting a % on it because it depends on the difficulty of the play involved but when I have tried to give someone a % for being 'clear' at dmp I have typically quoted 2% or .040. Or again, like I said, whatever you want.

Stick

Re: Rollout: Mutual holding game

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Subject: Re: Rollout: Mutual holding game
Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2022 23:24:26 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 19 Jan 2022 04:24 UTC

On 1/17/2022 5:03 PM, Stick Rice wrote:
> I don't like putting a % on it because it depends on the difficulty of the play involved but when I have tried to give someone a % for being 'clear' at dmp I have typically quoted 2% or .040. Or again, like I said, whatever you want.

So for example, in this post---

https://groups.google.com/g/rec.games.backgammon/c/98kFoFuXBQU/m/cMjXIzuiCQAJ

---you wrote:

> @Paul - remember this is set up at dmp so even though it's 'only' a
> .020 error that equates to 1% match winning chances which to me is a
> big deal. It's likely that at a normal score the error is bigger. I
> count .020 errors at dmp as blunder.

I suppose, though, that a "blunder" that is a "big deal" is not
necessarily "clearly wrong." It's always good to have plenty of
loopholes to ensure that the DMP rule is never wrong.

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: Mutual holding game

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Subject: Re: Rollout: Mutual holding game
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Wed, 19 Jan 2022 08:31 UTC

On Tuesday, January 18, 2022 at 11:24:30 PM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
> On 1/17/2022 5:03 PM, Stick Rice wrote:
> > I don't like putting a % on it because it depends on the difficulty of the play involved but when I have tried to give someone a % for being 'clear' at dmp I have typically quoted 2% or .040. Or again, like I said, whatever you want.
> So for example, in this post---
>
> https://groups.google.com/g/rec.games.backgammon/c/98kFoFuXBQU/m/cMjXIzuiCQAJ
>
> ---you wrote:
>
> > @Paul - remember this is set up at dmp so even though it's 'only' a
> > .020 error that equates to 1% match winning chances which to me is a
> > big deal. It's likely that at a normal score the error is bigger. I
> > count .020 errors at dmp as blunder.
>
> I suppose, though, that a "blunder" that is a "big deal" is not
> necessarily "clearly wrong." It's always good to have plenty of
> loopholes to ensure that the DMP rule is never wrong.
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

Yawn. It's so early. You guys want to get some coffee or something?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O1p6omIzsuY

Stick

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