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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Hit and then...?

Hit and then...?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Hit and then...?
Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2022 10:09:11 -0500
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by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 18 Jan 2022 15:09 UTC

XGID=---BBBB-AA-abC---dbccB----:1:-1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X | +---+
| X O O | | O O X | | 2 |
| X O | | O O | +---+
| O | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X X X X |
| O O X X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 134 O: 119 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 52

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Hit and then...?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Hit and then...?
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by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 20 Jan 2022 14:40 UTC

XGID=---BBBB-AA-abC---dbccB----:1:-1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

I didn't see a compelling reason to leave any return shots, and played
13/11*/6. However, 13/11* 13/8 gives O only 3 out of 36 rolls to hit
back, and gives X much better priming opportunities.

1. Rollout¹ 13/8 13/11* eq:+0.401
Player: 68.35% (G:22.04% B:0.49%)
Opponent: 31.65% (G:6.20% B:0.34%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.393..+0.410) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/11* 11/6 eq:+0.309 (-0.093)
Player: 64.18% (G:23.57% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 35.82% (G:6.80% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.301..+0.317) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Subject	Author
Hit and then...?	Timothy Chow
Rollout: Hit and then...?	Timothy Chow