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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Hit?

SubjectAuthor
* Hit?Timothy Chow
`- Rollout: Hit?Timothy Chow

1
Hit?

<ss95sp$mqo$2@dont-email.me>

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Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!reader02.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Hit?
Date: Wed, 19 Jan 2022 09:06:16 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 19 Jan 2022 14:06 UTC

XGID=-a--BaEAB--AbA----bc-BbbbA:1:1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O O O |
| O | | O X O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X | +---+
| O X | | X X | | 2 |
| O X X X | | X O X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 152 O: 114 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 41

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Hit?

<ssee70$6q5$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Hit?
Date: Fri, 21 Jan 2022 08:58:54 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 21 Jan 2022 13:58 UTC

XGID=-a--BaEAB--AbA----bc-BbbbA:1:1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O O O |
| O | | O X O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X | +---+
| O X | | X X | | 2 |
| O X X X | | X O X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 152 O: 114 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 41

I found a nice variant for this one; see below. I hit, but XG plays
safe. It seems that XG prefers to live with just two blots if that
is possible, but if X is going to leave three blots anyway (with 1s,
2s, and 6s to hit) then XG goes for the tempo hit.

Or as some analysts might say, in the variant, don't worry about
estimating gammons and just make the DMP play #simplegame; but in
this position, hitting obviously loses too many gammons.

1. Rollout¹ Bar/21 7/6 eq:-0.555
Player: 29.74% (G:6.48% B:0.27%)
Opponent: 70.26% (G:32.87% B:0.56%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.563..-0.546) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/21 6/5* eq:-0.631 (-0.076)
Player: 33.27% (G:8.67% B:0.41%)
Opponent: 66.73% (G:48.83% B:4.69%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.642..-0.619) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-a--BaEAB--AbA----bc-BbbbA:1:1:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O O O |
| O | | O X O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X | +---+
| O X | | X X | | 2 |
| O X X X | | X O X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 152 O: 114 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 51

1. Rollout¹ Bar/20 6/5* eq:-0.615
Player: 34.74% (G:9.49% B:0.52%)
Opponent: 65.26% (G:48.74% B:6.87%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.626..-0.603) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/20 7/6 eq:-0.690 (-0.075)
Player: 27.85% (G:6.50% B:0.31%)
Opponent: 72.15% (G:41.14% B:1.20%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.699..-0.681) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

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