It is well known that XG doesn't play complicated containment
positions very well. Still, the position below seemed "simple"
enough that I didn't expect XG 3-ply to play 19/14 17/14, but
it did.

In the rollout below, I'm including only a few selected plays;
I'm including 19/14 15/12 because that's the play with the
highest XG 3-ply evaluation.

XGID=aBBBBB--------AA-A-Bc-adf-:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:7:10

X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X X | | X O O O O |
| | | X O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | 6 |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 114 O: 57 X-O: 0-0/7
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 53

1. Rollout¹ 17/12 15/12 eq:+0.865
Player: 73.82% (G:4.86% B:0.14%)
Opponent: 26.18% (G:8.04% B:0.09%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.853..+0.876) - [99.5%]

2. Rollout¹ 17/12 14/11 eq:+0.844 (-0.021)
Player: 73.07% (G:5.04% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 26.93% (G:10.03% B:0.03%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.834..+0.854) - [0.5%]

3. Rollout¹ 19/14 15/12 eq:+0.706 (-0.159)
Player: 70.16% (G:4.34% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 29.84% (G:8.56% B:0.10%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.692..+0.719) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 19/14 17/14 eq:+0.544 (-0.321)
Player: 63.51% (G:4.45% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 36.49% (G:7.73% B:0.06%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.529..+0.558) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow

On 1/24/2022 8:39 AM, I wrote:

>     1. Rollout¹    17/12 15/12                  eq:+0.865
>     4. Rollout¹    19/14 17/14                  eq:+0.544 (-0.321)

Oh, by the way, I have a question for Zorba: Does anyone call this sort
of thing a "double whopper"? If someone were to do so, I would assume
that they had a different definition of "whopper" in mind, but maybe
not.

Related question: Don't people sometimes say things like, "whopper or
worse" or "double whopper or worse"? I seem to recall seeing things
like that, although I don't recall specific examples offhand.

---
Tim Chow