novaBBS - rec.games.backgammon - This is not an anti-conservation argument

This is not an anti-conservation argument

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Subject: This is not an anti-conservation argument
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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by: peps...@gmail.com - Tue, 25 Jan 2022 11:45 UTC

I totally agree with all moves to preserve rare species. However, I do think that
beavers might be more frequent than is commonly supposed.
I thought I played an excellent game against XG but, in fact, my PR was around 9.0
My mistake? The only mistake taking me out of world-class territory
was that I didn't think to beaver XG! XG thought that my not beavering
was a greater mistake than its own double.
XG surprised me a lot by doubling the position. I didn't even consider
the beaver, but was very sure of the take. My thinking was that I had
made a checkerplay mistake to lead to this position but XG didn't think
so.

Paul

XGID=aBABC-BAb---AA-B--bbcbab--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X O | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X X X |
| O O X | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 115 O: 96 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances: 49.75% (G:24.66% B:2.25%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 50.25% (G:14.32% B:0.30%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.118, Double=+0.241

Cubeful Equities:
No double: -0.183
Double/Beaver: -0.451 (-0.268)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+1.183)

Best Cube action: No double / Beaver
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 15.6%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Re: This is not an anti-conservation argument

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
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Subject: Re: This is not an anti-conservation argument
Date: Tue, 25 Jan 2022 08:48:42 -0500
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by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 25 Jan 2022 13:48 UTC

On 1/25/2022 6:45 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> I totally agree with all moves to preserve rare species. However, I do think that
> beavers might be more frequent than is commonly supposed.

They may also be more common than is frequently supposed.

> I thought I played an excellent game against XG but, in fact, my PR was around 9.0
> My mistake? The only mistake taking me out of world-class territory
> was that I didn't think to beaver XG! XG thought that my not beavering
> was a greater mistake than its own double.

Interesting. Below is a variant that XG 3-ply thinks is a simple take
but that a rollout deems to be a beaver.

XGID=aB-CBABAb---AA-B--bbcbab--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
| X X O | | O O O O O |
| X O | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X X X X |
| X O X | | X X X X X |
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
Pip count X: 98 O: 115 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
O on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 52.08% (G:27.77% B:2.31%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 47.92% (G:15.27% B:0.30%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 52.24% (G:29.07% B:2.99%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 47.76% (G:15.37% B:0.38%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.187, Double=+0.416

Cubeful Equities:
No double: -0.178
Double/Beaver: -0.198 (-0.020)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+1.178)

Best Cube action: No double / Beaver
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 1.7%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.010 (-0.188..-0.168)
Confidence Double: ± 0.042 (-0.241..-0.156)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: This is not an anti-conservation argument

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Subject: Re: This is not an anti-conservation argument
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by: peps...@gmail.com - Tue, 25 Jan 2022 16:18 UTC

On Tuesday, January 25, 2022 at 1:48:46 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
> On 1/25/2022 6:45 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> > I totally agree with all moves to preserve rare species. However, I do think that
> > beavers might be more frequent than is commonly supposed.
> They may also be more common than is frequently supposed.
> > I thought I played an excellent game against XG but, in fact, my PR was around 9.0
> > My mistake? The only mistake taking me out of world-class territory
> > was that I didn't think to beaver XG! XG thought that my not beavering
> > was a greater mistake than its own double.
> Interesting. Below is a variant that XG 3-ply thinks is a simple take
> but that a rollout deems to be a beaver.
>
> XGID=aB-CBABAb---AA-B--bbcbab--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> | X X O | | O O O O O |
> | X O | | O O O O |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | O | |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | O | | X X X X |
> | X O X | | X X X X X |
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> Pip count X: 98 O: 115 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> O on roll, cube action
>
> Analyzed in Rollout
> No double
> Player Winning Chances: 52.08% (G:27.77% B:2.31%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 47.92% (G:15.27% B:0.30%)
> Double/Take
> Player Winning Chances: 52.24% (G:29.07% B:2.99%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 47.76% (G:15.37% B:0.38%)
>
> Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.187, Double=+0.416
>
> Cubeful Equities:
> No double: -0.178
> Double/Beaver: -0.198 (-0.020)
> Double/Pass: +1.000 (+1.178)
> Best Cube action: No double / Beaver
> Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 1.7%
>
> Rollout:
> 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
> Confidence No Double: ± 0.010 (-0.188..-0.168)
> Confidence Double: ± 0.042 (-0.241..-0.156)
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

As always, you prove yourself a major expert in variantization, and I think we've uncovered the nub of the matter.
In your variantization, a double is only a small error -- 0.02. It's close to a Kauder paradox position -- double/beaver is close
to correct. The double is a tragic blunder (by XG) in my situation, though..

Paul

Biz is better.

interests / rec.games.backgammon / This is not an anti-conservation argument

Subject	Author
This is not an anti-conservation argument	peps...@gmail.com
Re: This is not an anti-conservation argument	Timothy Chow
Re: This is not an anti-conservation argument	peps...@gmail.com