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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Hit or play safe?

SubjectAuthor
* Hit or play safe?Timothy Chow
`- Rollout: Hit or play safe?Timothy Chow

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Hit or play safe?

<ssmcep$44m$2@dont-email.me>

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Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!reader02.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Hit or play safe?
Date: Mon, 24 Jan 2022 09:18:00 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 24 Jan 2022 14:18 UTC

XGID=--BDbcDC-aB--------abbbb--:1:-1:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| X | | X O X |
| X X | | X O O X X |
| X O X | | X O O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 81 O: 152 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 51

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Hit or play safe?

<ssrmuf$d80$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Hit or play safe?
Date: Wed, 26 Jan 2022 09:47:41 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 26 Jan 2022 14:47 UTC

XGID=--BDbcDC-aB--------abbbb--:1:-1:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| X | | X O X |
| X X | | X O O X X |
| X O X | | X O O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 81 O: 152 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 51

Hitting wins more gammons, but is it worth the risk of leaving return
shots from the bar? In this position, XG thinks so, because O's
offensive position has some weaknesses. But see the variant below.

1. Rollout¹ 10/9* 7/2 eq:+0.290
Player: 58.72% (G:37.18% B:0.56%)
Opponent: 41.28% (G:8.67% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.277..+0.303) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 7/1 eq:+0.212 (-0.078)
Player: 58.67% (G:24.96% B:0.27%)
Opponent: 41.33% (G:5.18% B:0.18%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.202..+0.222) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--BDbcDC-aB--------bbbba--:1:-1:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| X | | X O X |
| X X | | X O O X X |
| X O X | | X O O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 81 O: 156 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 51

1. Rollout¹ 7/1 eq:+0.145
Player: 56.27% (G:24.95% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 43.73% (G:5.39% B:0.16%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.136..+0.155) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 7/2 3/2 eq:+0.109 (-0.037)
Player: 55.24% (G:24.02% B:0.18%)
Opponent: 44.76% (G:6.20% B:0.19%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.098..+0.119) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 10/9* 7/2 eq:+0.099 (-0.046)
Player: 52.88% (G:34.56% B:0.48%)
Opponent: 47.12% (G:9.95% B:0.36%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.087..+0.112) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 6/1 3/2 eq:+0.090 (-0.055)
Player: 54.97% (G:23.61% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 45.03% (G:6.44% B:0.20%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.080..+0.099) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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