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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Play safe?

SubjectAuthor
* Play safe?Timothy Chow
`* Rollout: Play safe?Timothy Chow
 `- Re: Rollout: Play safe?Stick Rice

1
Play safe?

<st1146$8qi$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Play safe?
Date: Fri, 28 Jan 2022 10:12:04 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 28 Jan 2022 15:12 UTC

XGID=-CB-BaD-----bB---bBbccb---:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O O O |
| X O X | | O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X | +---+
| O | | X X X X | | 2 |
| O | | X O X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 101 O: 107 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 52

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Play safe?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Play safe?
Date: Sun, 30 Jan 2022 12:08:42 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 30 Jan 2022 17:08 UTC

XGID=-CB-BaD-----bB---bBbccb---:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O O O |
| X O X | | O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X | +---+
| O | | X X X X | | 2 |
| O | | X O X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 101 O: 107 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 52

Usually it's not a good idea to break the bar point anchor and leave a
direct shot when the opponent's board is this strong. Indeed, in the
variant below, where O has a five-point board, XG favors the ugly dump.
But in the position I posted, XG breaks anchor.

1. Rollout¹ 18/16 18/13 eq:-0.200
Player: 37.74% (G:3.84% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 62.26% (G:14.30% B:0.20%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.207..-0.194) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 6/4 6/1 eq:-0.287 (-0.087)
Player: 35.75% (G:3.08% B:0.05%)
Opponent: 64.25% (G:16.83% B:0.36%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.293..-0.281) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/6 eq:-0.329 (-0.129)
Player: 33.91% (G:3.79% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 66.09% (G:16.66% B:0.51%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.336..-0.323) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-CB-BaD-----bB---bBbbbbb--:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O O O O |
| X O X | | O O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X | +---+
| O | | X X X X | | 2 |
| O | | X O X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 101 O: 102 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 52

1. Rollout¹ 6/4 6/1 eq:-0.348
Player: 33.71% (G:2.32% B:0.02%)
Opponent: 66.29% (G:17.26% B:0.30%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.354..-0.342) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 18/16 18/13 eq:-0.394 (-0.046)
Player: 31.41% (G:2.25% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 68.59% (G:17.00% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.400..-0.387) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: Play safe?

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Subject: Re: Rollout: Play safe?
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Mon, 31 Jan 2022 15:53 UTC

On Sunday, January 30, 2022 at 12:08:44 PM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
> XGID=-CB-BaD-----bB---bBbccb---:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O X | | O O O O |
> | X O X | | O O O O |
> | | | O O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | | | X X | +---+
> | O | | X X X X | | 2 |
> | O | | X O X X X | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 101 O: 107 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X to play 52
> Usually it's not a good idea to break the bar point anchor and leave a
> direct shot when the opponent's board is this strong. Indeed, in the
> variant below, where O has a five-point board, XG favors the ugly dump.
> But in the position I posted, XG breaks anchor.
>
> 1. Rollout¹ 18/16 18/13 eq:-0.200
> Player: 37.74% (G:3.84% B:0.10%)
> Opponent: 62.26% (G:14.30% B:0.20%)
> Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.207..-0.194) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 6/4 6/1 eq:-0.287 (-0.087)
> Player: 35.75% (G:3.08% B:0.05%)
> Opponent: 64.25% (G:16.83% B:0.36%)
> Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.293..-0.281) - [0.0%]
>
> 3. Rollout¹ 13/6 eq:-0.329 (-0.129)
> Player: 33.91% (G:3.79% B:0.07%)
> Opponent: 66.09% (G:16.66% B:0.51%)
> Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.336..-0.323) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
>
> -------
> Variant
> -------
>
> XGID=-CB-BaD-----bB---bBbbbbb--:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O X | | O O O O O |
> | X O X | | O O O O O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | | | X X | +---+
> | O | | X X X X | | 2 |
> | O | | X O X X X | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 101 O: 102 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X to play 52
> 1. Rollout¹ 6/4 6/1 eq:-0.348
> Player: 33.71% (G:2.32% B:0.02%)
> Opponent: 66.29% (G:17.26% B:0.30%)
> Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.354..-0.342) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 18/16 18/13 eq:-0.394 (-0.046)
> Player: 31.41% (G:2.25% B:0.07%)
> Opponent: 68.59% (G:17.00% B:0.22%)
> Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.400..-0.387) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

The variant isn't about just a stronger board. You've closed the race gap by 5 pips and made it so the opponent is forced to weaken his position no matter what he rolls so we hold out for that.

Stick

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