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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Re: Rollout: A good roll, but how do you play it?

SubjectAuthor
* A good roll, but how do you play it?Timothy Chow
`* Rollout: A good roll, but how do you play it?Timothy Chow
 `- Re: Rollout: A good roll, but how do you play it?Stick Rice

1
A good roll, but how do you play it?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: A good roll, but how do you play it?
Date: Wed, 26 Jan 2022 09:49:33 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 26 Jan 2022 14:49 UTC

XGID=-aa-BBC-A---bE--bc-dbB----:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X X X |
| O X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 151 O: 149 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 55

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: A good roll, but how do you play it?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: A good roll, but how do you play it?
Date: Fri, 28 Jan 2022 10:16:51 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 28 Jan 2022 15:16 UTC

XGID=-aa-BBC-A---bE--bc-dbB----:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X X X |
| O X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 151 O: 149 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 55

After 13/3 8/3, I figured that if I was going to leave a direct shot,
I might as well hit and put O up against a four-point board. One
problem is that it's hard to cover that blot on the 1pt. See the
variant for comparison.

1. Rollout¹ 13/3(2) eq:+0.500
Player: 59.39% (G:23.70% B:0.70%)
Opponent: 40.61% (G:8.14% B:0.35%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.484..+0.515) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/3 8/3 6/1* eq:+0.419 (-0.081)
Player: 58.44% (G:23.19% B:0.65%)
Opponent: 41.56% (G:9.51% B:0.42%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.403..+0.435) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-aa-BCC-A---bD--bc-dbB----:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| O | | X X X |
| O X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 143 O: 149 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 55

1. Rollout¹ 13/3 8/3 6/1* eq:+0.595
Player: 60.73% (G:28.35% B:0.76%)
Opponent: 39.27% (G:8.45% B:0.37%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.586..+0.604) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/3(2) eq:+0.535 (-0.060)
Player: 60.26% (G:28.51% B:0.86%)
Opponent: 39.74% (G:8.33% B:0.36%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.525..+0.546) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: A good roll, but how do you play it?

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Subject: Re: Rollout: A good roll, but how do you play it?
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Fri, 28 Jan 2022 19:31 UTC

On Friday, January 28, 2022 at 10:16:55 AM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
> XGID=-aa-BBC-A---bE--bc-dbB----:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O X |
> | X O O | | O O X |
> | X O | | O |
> | X | | O |
> | X | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | O | | X X X |
> | O X | | X X X O O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 151 O: 149 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 55
> After 13/3 8/3, I figured that if I was going to leave a direct shot,
> I might as well hit and put O up against a four-point board. One
> problem is that it's hard to cover that blot on the 1pt. See the
> variant for comparison.
>
> 1. Rollout¹ 13/3(2) eq:+0.500
> Player: 59.39% (G:23.70% B:0.70%)
> Opponent: 40.61% (G:8.14% B:0.35%)
> Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.484..+0.515) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 13/3 8/3 6/1* eq:+0.419 (-0.081)
> Player: 58.44% (G:23.19% B:0.65%)
> Opponent: 41.56% (G:9.51% B:0.42%)
> Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.403..+0.435) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
>
> -------
> Variant
> -------
>
> XGID=-aa-BCC-A---bD--bc-dbB----:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O X |
> | X O O | | O O X |
> | X O | | O |
> | X | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X X |
> | O | | X X X |
> | O X | | X X X O O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 143 O: 149 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 55
> 1. Rollout¹ 13/3 8/3 6/1* eq:+0.595
> Player: 60.73% (G:28.35% B:0.76%)
> Opponent: 39.27% (G:8.45% B:0.37%)
> Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.586..+0.604) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 13/3(2) eq:+0.535 (-0.060)
> Player: 60.26% (G:28.51% B:0.86%)
> Opponent: 39.74% (G:8.33% B:0.36%)
> Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.525..+0.546) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

One way you give your opponent 20 good rolls the other way you give them 13.. (and even on a fan after the hitting play it's nowhere near close to a pass and it will repeat, as you noted)

Stick

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