Rocksolid Light

Welcome to novaBBS (click a section below)

mail  files  register  newsreader  groups  login

Message-ID:  

Have you noticed that all you need to grow healthy, vigorous grass is a crack in your sidewalk?

interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Just make the DMP play

SubjectAuthor
* Just make the DMP playTimothy Chow
`- Rollout: Just make the DMP playTimothy Chow

1
Just make the DMP play

<ssubhn$ha9$2@dont-email.me>

  copy mid

https://www.novabbs.com/interests/article-flat.php?id=8111&group=rec.games.backgammon#8111

  copy link   Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!reader02.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Just make the DMP play
Date: Thu, 27 Jan 2022 09:51:34 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
Lines: 23
Message-ID: <ssubhn$ha9$2@dont-email.me>
Mime-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8; format=flowed
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
Injection-Date: Thu, 27 Jan 2022 14:51:35 -0000 (UTC)
Injection-Info: reader02.eternal-september.org; posting-host="257f95e5e43a99b6d9a8aca4b3430e52";
logging-data="17737"; mail-complaints-to="abuse@eternal-september.org"; posting-account="U2FsdGVkX1/5spzgMI+X5xE2KjMhRsg1nlzb6A/C4bs="
User-Agent: Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 10.0; Win64; x64; rv:91.0) Gecko/20100101
Thunderbird/91.5.0
Cancel-Lock: sha1:e3NyMgfKyatVu6fUMZjY3oD1DF0=
Content-Language: en-US
 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 27 Jan 2022 14:51 UTC

XGID=-BBC--BbD------b-bbbBaca--:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:1:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 1 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O X O O O |
| O O O | | O X O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X |
| X O | | X X X X |
| X O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 99 O: 113 X-O: 0-0/1
Cube: 1
X to play 54

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Just make the DMP play

<st3s5k$l12$1@dont-email.me>

  copy mid

https://www.novabbs.com/interests/article-flat.php?id=8115&group=rec.games.backgammon#8115

  copy link   Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!reader02.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Just make the DMP play
Date: Sat, 29 Jan 2022 12:05:54 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
Lines: 155
Message-ID: <st3s5k$l12$1@dont-email.me>
References: <ssubhn$ha9$2@dont-email.me>
Mime-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8; format=flowed
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit
Injection-Date: Sat, 29 Jan 2022 17:05:56 -0000 (UTC)
Injection-Info: reader02.eternal-september.org; posting-host="95124439551b36363063ee41b85db964";
logging-data="21538"; mail-complaints-to="abuse@eternal-september.org"; posting-account="U2FsdGVkX19sYPYGqJCZw3lguxMF/8WMg4HWumQKTwI="
User-Agent: Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 10.0; Win64; x64; rv:91.0) Gecko/20100101
Thunderbird/91.5.0
Cancel-Lock: sha1:Z1mViG6WbM4wMelban7WfO8+QN8=
In-Reply-To: <ssubhn$ha9$2@dont-email.me>
Content-Language: en-US
 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 29 Jan 2022 17:05 UTC

XGID=-BBC--BbD------b-bbbBaca--:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:1:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 1 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O X O O O |
| O O O | | O X O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X |
| X O | | X X X X |
| X O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 99 O: 113 X-O: 0-0/1
Cube: 1
X to play 54

You should just make the DMP play here because...well, it's DMP.

I decided to break anchor, reasoning as follows: I'm ahead in the race,
my opponent has two blots in her board making it hard for her to attack
successfully, and the alternative is to kill another checker. Plus, I
don't have to worry about the extra gammons lost because it's DMP.

However, XG favors 8/4 8/3, probably because O's attacking chances are
better than I judged them to be. Interestingly, for money, XG rates
the prospects of breaking anchor (relatively) more highly, because of
the extra gammon *wins* coming from a potential blot-hitting contest.

See also the variant, in which I've moved O's 4pt blot to her 1pt.

1. Rollout¹ 8/4 8/3 eq:-0.063
Player: 46.86% (G:7.06% B:0.04%)
Opponent: 53.14% (G:6.80% B:0.29%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.067..-0.059) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/4 6/1 eq:-0.096 (-0.034)
Player: 45.18% (G:4.58% B:0.04%)
Opponent: 54.82% (G:7.51% B:0.35%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.100..-0.093) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 20/16 8/3 eq:-0.100 (-0.037)
Player: 45.02% (G:16.08% B:0.18%)
Opponent: 54.98% (G:11.15% B:0.26%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.103..-0.096) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 20/11 eq:-0.118 (-0.056)
Player: 44.08% (G:18.43% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 55.92% (G:11.60% B:0.38%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.122..-0.115) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

-----
Money
-----

XGID=-BBC--BbD------b-bbbBaca--:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O X O O O |
| O O O | | O X O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X |
| X O | | X X X X |
| X O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 99 O: 113 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 54

1. Rollout¹ 20/11 eq:-0.143
Player: 44.97% (G:15.00% B:0.34%)
Opponent: 55.03% (G:14.10% B:0.31%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.151..-0.135) - [87.8%]

2. Rollout¹ 20/16 8/3 eq:-0.151 (-0.008)
Player: 45.96% (G:10.31% B:0.14%)
Opponent: 54.04% (G:13.96% B:0.35%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.160..-0.142) - [8.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/4 8/3 eq:-0.154 (-0.011)
Player: 47.27% (G:6.70% B:0.12%)
Opponent: 52.73% (G:9.92% B:0.37%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.165..-0.143) - [4.3%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-BBC--BbD------b-bbbB-caa-:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:1:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 1 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O X O O O |
| O O O | | O X O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X |
| X O | | X X X X |
| X O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 99 O: 110 X-O: 0-0/1
Cube: 1
X to play 54

1. Rollout¹ 20/16 8/3 eq:-0.001
Player: 49.94% (G:17.15% B:0.25%)
Opponent: 50.06% (G:10.90% B:0.13%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.005..+0.002) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 20/11 eq:-0.012 (-0.011)
Player: 49.38% (G:15.94% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 50.62% (G:9.33% B:0.12%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.016..-0.009) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/4 8/3 eq:-0.029 (-0.027)
Player: 48.57% (G:8.78% B:0.06%)
Opponent: 51.43% (G:6.89% B:0.21%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.032..-0.025) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow

1
server_pubkey.txt

rocksolid light 0.9.8
clearnet tor