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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Break anchor?

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* Break anchor?Timothy Chow
`- Rollout: Break anchor?Timothy Chow

1
Break anchor?

<st3s66$l12$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Break anchor?
Date: Sat, 29 Jan 2022 12:06:13 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 29 Jan 2022 17:06 UTC

XGID=-BBBC-C-A-----c---bbBbcba-:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O X O O O O |
| O O | | O X O O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| | | X X X X X |
| X | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 90 O: 81 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 54

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Break anchor?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Break anchor?
Date: Mon, 31 Jan 2022 08:58:57 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 31 Jan 2022 13:58 UTC

XGID=-BBBC-C-A-----c---bbBbcba-:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O X O O O O |
| O O | | O X O O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| | | X X X X X |
| X | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 90 O: 81 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 54

In this sort of position, X has to judge which is the lesser evil:
giving O attacking chances, or wasting pips in the race. What I
find interesting about this particular position is that 20/11 is a
"cube provocation play." After 20/11, XG doubles as O, but after
8/3 6/2, XG does *not* double as O. That is, 20/11 "forces" O into
an inefficient double. (Though as the variant below shows, even if
X already owned the cube, XG slightly prefers 20/11 anyway.)

1. Rollout¹ 20/11 eq:-0.592
Player: 30.87% (G:2.21% B:0.03%)
Opponent: 69.13% (G:2.73% B:0.04%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.602..-0.583) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/3 6/2 eq:-0.655 (-0.062)
Player: 29.88% (G:0.69% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 70.12% (G:1.97% B:0.02%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.663..-0.646) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/4 6/1 eq:-0.665 (-0.073)
Player: 29.64% (G:0.66% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 70.36% (G:1.95% B:0.02%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.674..-0.657) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 6/2 6/1 eq:-0.698 (-0.106)
Player: 29.29% (G:0.47% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 70.71% (G:2.85% B:0.07%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.707..-0.689) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-BBBC-C-A-----c---bbBbcba-:1:1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O X O O O O |
| O O | | O X O O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 90 O: 81 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 54

1. Rollout¹ 20/11 eq:-0.296
Player: 30.87% (G:2.21% B:0.03%)
Opponent: 69.13% (G:2.73% B:0.04%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.301..-0.292) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/3 6/2 eq:-0.315 (-0.019)
Player: 29.87% (G:0.69% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 70.13% (G:1.97% B:0.02%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.320..-0.310) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/4 6/1 eq:-0.322 (-0.025)
Player: 29.63% (G:0.66% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 70.37% (G:1.95% B:0.02%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.326..-0.317) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 6/2 6/1 eq:-0.340 (-0.044)
Player: 29.36% (G:0.49% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 70.64% (G:3.02% B:0.07%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.345..-0.335) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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