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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Anchor or hit?

SubjectAuthor
* Anchor or hit?Timothy Chow
`- Rollout: Anchor or hit?Timothy Chow

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Anchor or hit?

<st8q0l$fsq$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Anchor or hit?
Date: Mon, 31 Jan 2022 08:59:49 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 31 Jan 2022 13:59 UTC

XGID=-a--aBD-C---dD---c-d-Ab-A-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O X |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 155 O: 151 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 21

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Anchor or hit?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Anchor or hit?
Date: Wed, 2 Feb 2022 09:09:25 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 2 Feb 2022 14:09 UTC

XGID=-a--aBD-C---dD---c-d-Ab-A-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O X |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 155 O: 151 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 21

Anchoring didn't seem too urgent to me here since O's board isn't
that strong, so I opted to fight for the 4pt. According to XG,
that's a whopper. (Oops, I guess I've been instructed that it's not
a whopper if X plays 24/23 instead of 21/20.) However, in the
variant below, where O's structure is even weaker, XG favors the hit.

1. Rollout¹ 24/21 eq:+0.266
Player: 56.15% (G:13.85% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 43.85% (G:7.66% B:0.30%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.253..+0.278) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/23 6/4* eq:+0.167 (-0.099)
Player: 54.27% (G:16.53% B:0.74%)
Opponent: 45.73% (G:14.75% B:0.68%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.151..+0.182) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 21/20 6/4* eq:+0.166 (-0.100)
Player: 54.36% (G:16.94% B:0.77%)
Opponent: 45.64% (G:14.39% B:0.78%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.151..+0.181) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-a--aBD-C---dD---d-e-A--A-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X X |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 155 O: 159 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 21

1. Rollout¹ 21/20 6/4* eq:+0.412
Player: 58.94% (G:19.38% B:0.89%)
Opponent: 41.06% (G:10.10% B:0.47%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.397..+0.428) - [98.9%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/21 eq:+0.389 (-0.023)
Player: 59.08% (G:15.78% B:0.54%)
Opponent: 40.92% (G:7.01% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.376..+0.402) - [1.1%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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