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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Bar point or midpoint?

SubjectAuthor
* Bar point or midpoint?Timothy Chow
`- Rollout: Bar point or midpoint?Timothy Chow

1
Bar point or midpoint?

<stgobo$qpu$2@dont-email.me>

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https://www.novabbs.com/interests/article-flat.php?id=8139&group=rec.games.backgammon#8139

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Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!reader02.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Bar point or midpoint?
Date: Thu, 3 Feb 2022 09:20:39 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 3 Feb 2022 14:20 UTC

XGID=---acCC-D--AbA----AdabbB--:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | O O O O X |
| | | O O O X |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X X O |
| O X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 153 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 41

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Bar point or midpoint?

<stmbq4$pph$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Bar point or midpoint?
Date: Sat, 5 Feb 2022 12:23:14 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 5 Feb 2022 17:23 UTC

XGID=---acCC-D--AbA----AdabbB--:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | O O O O X |
| | | O O O X |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X X O |
| O X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 153 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 41

This is a "safe versus bold" judgment call; see the variant. 18/13
releases a lot of the pressure on O's position, but of course leaves
more blots and shots.

1. Rollout¹ 11/7 8/7 eq:+0.020
Player: 51.36% (G:15.47% B:0.80%)
Opponent: 48.64% (G:16.87% B:0.87%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.005..+0.036) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 18/13 eq:-0.072 (-0.092)
Player: 48.92% (G:12.69% B:0.60%)
Opponent: 51.08% (G:15.60% B:0.72%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.087..-0.057) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=---acCC-D--AbA----AcbbbB--:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | O O O O X |
| | | O O O O X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X X O |
| O X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 153 O: 153 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 41

1. Rollout¹ 18/13 eq:-0.447
Player: 40.17% (G:8.32% B:0.34%)
Opponent: 59.83% (G:18.24% B:0.90%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.462..-0.432) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 11/7 8/7 eq:-0.502 (-0.055)
Player: 39.74% (G:10.10% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 60.26% (G:24.12% B:1.41%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.518..-0.487) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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