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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Run or mark the bar point?

SubjectAuthor
* Run or mark the bar point?Timothy Chow
`- Rollout: Run or mark the bar point?Timothy Chow

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Run or mark the bar point?

<stja4m$vpv$2@dont-email.me>

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https://www.novabbs.com/interests/article-flat.php?id=8144&group=rec.games.backgammon#8144

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Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!reader02.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Run or mark the bar point?
Date: Fri, 4 Feb 2022 08:36:21 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 4 Feb 2022 13:36 UTC

XGID=--BcaCB-C-C--A--ab-b-bbAb-:1:-1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X O | +---+
| O | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X X | | X O |
| X X | | X X O X |
| X X | | X X O O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 121 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 63

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Run or mark the bar point?

<stomf7$lo0$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Run or mark the bar point?
Date: Sun, 6 Feb 2022 09:37:25 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 6 Feb 2022 14:37 UTC

XGID=--BcaCB-C-C--A--ab-b-bbAb-:1:-1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X O | +---+
| O | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X X | | X O |
| X X | | X X O X |
| X X | | X X O O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 121 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 63

One thing X has to judge here is, how hard will it be to escape the
straggler if he doesn't run now? If O does not have a serious priming
or attacking threat, then X can calmly make the bar point now and
Pottle later. For comparison, see the variant below. Note that
making the bar point has the advantage of winning more gammons (in
both positions).

1. Rollout¹ 13/7 10/7 eq:+0.443
Player: 70.92% (G:17.51% B:0.59%)
Opponent: 29.08% (G:5.21% B:0.09%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.436..+0.449) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 23/14 eq:+0.327 (-0.116)
Player: 69.08% (G:12.87% B:0.45%)
Opponent: 30.92% (G:7.68% B:0.12%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.319..+0.334) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/4* eq:+0.247 (-0.196)
Player: 64.51% (G:21.74% B:0.88%)
Opponent: 35.49% (G:12.41% B:0.21%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.237..+0.256) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 23/20 10/4* eq:+0.222 (-0.221)
Player: 64.27% (G:21.60% B:0.87%)
Opponent: 35.73% (G:14.41% B:0.60%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.213..+0.231) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--BcaCB-C-C--A--abbb-b-Ab-:1:-1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O X O | +---+
| O O | | O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X X | | X O |
| X X | | X X O X |
| X X | | X X O O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 121 O: 148 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 63

1. Rollout¹ 23/14 eq:+0.416
Player: 71.29% (G:14.61% B:0.44%)
Opponent: 28.71% (G:5.49% B:0.11%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.409..+0.423) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/7 10/7 eq:+0.387 (-0.030)
Player: 68.03% (G:19.59% B:0.63%)
Opponent: 31.97% (G:5.58% B:0.14%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.379..+0.394) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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