X has a checker on the bar.

XGID=-b---AD-C-A-dD----bcA-b-bA:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O O |
| X O | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O |
| O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 160 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64
--
BD

On Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 12:32:48 PM UTC, BlueDice wrote:
> X has a checker on the bar.
>
> XGID=-b---AD-C-A-dD----bcA-b-bA:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O | | O X O O |
> | X O | | O O O |
> | X | | O |
> | X | | |
> | | X | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | O | | X |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X | | X O |
> | O X X | | X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 160 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 64
> --
> BD

Taken from a facebook>>Backgammon Strategy
--
BD

On 11/10/2021 7:32 AM, BlueDice wrote:
> X has a checker on the bar.
>
> XGID=-b---AD-C-A-dD----bcA-b-bA:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O | | O X O O |
> | X O | | O O O |
> | X | | O |
> | X | | |
> | | X | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | O | | X |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X | | X O |
> | O X X | | X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 160 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 64

The four is forced. X can't cover any blots, so he's stuck with four
blots unless he creates a fifth one by playing off the midpoint or eight
point, neither of which are attractive.

10/4 moves a blot from an indirect to a direct, so I doubt that's
right. That seems to leave running one of the two back checkers. 21/15
dupes fives to cover three ways so maybe 20/14 is better? Not sure but
that's my choice.

On 11/10/2021 7:32 AM, BlueDice wrote:
> X has a checker on the bar.
>
> XGID=-b---AD-C-A-dD----bcA-b-bA:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O | | O X O O |
> | X O | | O O O |
> | X | | O |
> | X | | |
> | | X | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | O | | X |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X | | X O |
> | O X X | | X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 160 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 64

I'd play 20/14. We're trying desperately to avoid getting blitzed
off the board. Generally speaking that means we want our blots to
be on lower, rather than higher, points in O's board. Also 20/14
duplicates O's 2's to hit us. If we could duplicate 4's then I
would do that, but we can't.

---
Tim Chow

On Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 7:57:28 AM UTC-5, BlueDice wrote:
> On Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 12:32:48 PM UTC, BlueDice wrote:
> > X has a checker on the bar.
> >
> > XGID=-b---AD-C-A-dD----bcA-b-bA:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
> > X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> >
> > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | X O | | O X O O |
> > | X O | | O O O |
> > | X | | O |
> > | X | | |
> > | | X | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | | |
> > | O | | X |
> > | O X | | X |
> > | O X | | X O |
> > | O X X | | X X O |
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 160 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
> > Cube: 1
> > X to play 64
> > --
> > BD
> Taken from a facebook>>Backgammon Strategy
> --
> BD

But altered.

Stick

On 11/10/2021 7:32 AM, BlueDice wrote:
> X has a checker on the bar.
>
> XGID=-b---AD-C-A-dD----bcA-b-bA:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O | | O X O O |
> | X O | | O O O |
> | X | | O |
> | X | | |
> | | X | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | O | | X |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X | | X O |
> | O X X | | X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 160 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 64

....I have some additional comments to make. Often I hear people
justifying a play such as bar/15 by saying that it "keeps the
back checkers connected." I have found that connectivity is
rarely if ever the relevant concept to consider in this type of
position. More often than not, you're not going to have the
opportunity to make that outfield point next turn, and even if
you are, it's usually not that important a point to make anyway.

Instead, I find that it's usually more important to ask if you
are in more danger of getting attacked or of getting primed.
If the priming danger predominates, then you typically want to
get your straggler close to the edge of the prime in order to
jump out. If the attacking danger predominates, then you
typically want to take the edge off your opponent's best rolls,
such as double-hits and PoH. That often means keeping your
straggler further back. "Keeping your checkers connected" often
just means giving your opponent more double-hitting rolls.

Sometimes it can be difficult to weigh the attacking danger
against the priming danger, but here it is clear that O has
no priming threat and it's her attacking threat that X has to
be worried about.

---
Tim Chow

On Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 7:32:48 AM UTC-5, BlueDice wrote:
> X has a checker on the bar.
>
> XGID=-b---AD-C-A-dD----bcA-b-bA:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O | | O X O O |
> | X O | | O O O |
> | X | | O |
> | X | | |
> | | X | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | O | | X |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X | | X O |
> | O X X | | X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 160 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 64
> --
> BD

I could share a rule I discovered that I'm not sure if I've shared before for this exact type of play. I shared it with Steve Sax a couple of weeks ago and he was happy as a pig in shit about it. It seems rgb may be above Steve's level though so not sure if anyone is interested in that sort of adage nonsense.

Stick

On Thursday, November 11, 2021 at 2:43:13 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
> On 11/10/2021 7:32 AM, BlueDice wrote:
> > X has a checker on the bar.
> >
> > XGID=-b---AD-C-A-dD----bcA-b-bA:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
> > X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> >
> > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | X O | | O X O O |
> > | X O | | O O O |
> > | X | | O |
> > | X | | |
> > | | X | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | | |
> > | O | | X |
> > | O X | | X |
> > | O X | | X O |
> > | O X X | | X X O |
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 160 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
> > Cube: 1
> > X to play 64
> ...I have some additional comments to make. Often I hear people
> justifying a play such as bar/15 by saying that it "keeps the
> back checkers connected." I have found that connectivity is
> rarely if ever the relevant concept to consider in this type of
> position. More often than not, you're not going to have the
> opportunity to make that outfield point next turn, and even if
> you are, it's usually not that important a point to make anyway.
>
> Instead, I find that it's usually more important to ask if you
> are in more danger of getting attacked or of getting primed.
> If the priming danger predominates, then you typically want to
> get your straggler close to the edge of the prime in order to
> jump out. If the attacking danger predominates, then you
> typically want to take the edge off your opponent's best rolls,
> such as double-hits and PoH. That often means keeping your
> straggler further back. "Keeping your checkers connected" often
> just means giving your opponent more double-hitting rolls.
>
> Sometimes it can be difficult to weigh the attacking danger
> against the priming danger, but here it is clear that O has
> no priming threat and it's her attacking threat that X has to
> be worried about.
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

Great observations, I make it 15 double hit shots after bar/15 and 11 after bar/21 20/14.
--
BD

On Thursday, November 11, 2021 at 4:00:30 PM UTC, Stick Rice wrote:
> On Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 7:32:48 AM UTC-5, BlueDice wrote:
> > X has a checker on the bar.
> >
> > XGID=-b---AD-C-A-dD----bcA-b-bA:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
> > X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> >
> > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | X O | | O X O O |
> > | X O | | O O O |
> > | X | | O |
> > | X | | |
> > | | X | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | | |
> > | O | | X |
> > | O X | | X |
> > | O X | | X O |
> > | O X X | | X X O |
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 160 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
> > Cube: 1
> > X to play 64
> > --
> > BD
> I could share a rule I discovered that I'm not sure if I've shared before for this exact type of play. I shared it with Steve Sax a couple of weeks ago and he was happy as a pig in shit about it. It seems rgb may be above Steve's level though so not sure if anyone is interested in that sort of adage nonsense.
>
> Stick

Please tell.
--
BD

On 11/11/2021 9:43 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> On 11/10/2021 7:32 AM, BlueDice wrote:
>> X has a checker on the bar.
>>
>> XGID=-b---AD-C-A-dD----bcA-b-bA:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
>> X:Player 1   O:Player 2
>>
>> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>>   +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>>   | X              O |   | O  X     O     O |
>>   | X              O |   | O        O     O |
>>   | X                |   | O                |
>>   | X                |   |                  |
>>   |                  | X |                  |
>>   |                  |BAR|                  |
>>   |                  |   |                  |
>>   | O                |   | X                |
>>   | O           X    |   | X                |
>>   | O           X    |   | X              O |
>>   | O     X     X    |   | X  X           O |
>>   +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
>> Pip count  X: 160  O: 140 X-O: 0-0
>> Cube: 1
>> X to play 64
>
> ...I have some additional comments to make.  Often I hear people
> justifying a play such as bar/15 by saying that it "keeps the
> back checkers connected."  I have found that connectivity is
> rarely if ever the relevant concept to consider in this type of
> position.  More often than not, you're not going to have the
> opportunity to make that outfield point next turn, and even if
> you are, it's usually not that important a point to make anyway.
>
> Instead, I find that it's usually more important to ask if you
> are in more danger of getting attacked or of getting primed.
> If the priming danger predominates, then you typically want to
> get your straggler close to the edge of the prime in order to
> jump out.  If the attacking danger predominates, then you
> typically want to take the edge off your opponent's best rolls,
> such as double-hits and PoH.  That often means keeping your
> straggler further back.  "Keeping your checkers connected" often
> just means giving your opponent more double-hitting rolls.
>
> Sometimes it can be difficult to weigh the attacking danger
> against the priming danger, but here it is clear that O has
> no priming threat and it's her attacking threat that X has to
> be worried about.
>

I haven't checked the bot yet, but I'm assuming 20/14 is the bot play.

In my response, I mentioned that 21/15 dupes fives three ways for X to
cover. I didn't mention (because I didn't notice) that 20/14 dupes twos
for O. Those two considerations should outweigh whatever advantage
connectivity may bring.

On 11/11/2021 6:09 PM, Stick Rice wrote:
> When you have this type of situation (6x from the bar and the X or entering number is a four or five and you have a checker on the other point) you always run from the 20pt. This comes up waaaaay often and a lot of the time the difference in plays is not even that large, .020 give or take. However, the right play is always 20/14. Even I having created this rule, having collected a fair share of positions on it and seeing it tested time and again have no firm understanding of the why behind it. I accept it as true at this point and get on with life. There will be exceptions, of course, but these often involve other potential plays (like having 3 or 4 men back instead of 2 or hitting in your inner board instead of running either checker or some random massive duplication that pops up etc...)

Below is a position that just came up today. I "automatically"
played 20/14 and even Stick might call this a whopper. My guess
is that duplication of 3's is a big part of the explanation.

XGID=-b----E-D--BbB---cbb-Ab-bA:0:0:1:65:3:0:0:7:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:3 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O O |
| X O O | | O O O |
| O | | |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X O |
| O X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 156 O: 132 X-O: 3-0/7
Cube: 1
X to play 65

1. XG Roller++ Bar/20 21/15 eq:-0.616
Player: 41.56% (G:8.72% B:0.46%)
Opponent: 58.44% (G:28.04% B:0.55%)

2. XG Roller++ Bar/14 eq:-0.716 (-0.100)
Player: 40.11% (G:8.71% B:0.48%)
Opponent: 59.89% (G:29.20% B:0.52%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow

On Wednesday, February 2, 2022 at 12:18:58 AM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
> On 11/11/2021 6:09 PM, Stick Rice wrote:
> > When you have this type of situation (6x from the bar and the X or entering number is a four or five and you have a checker on the other point) you always run from the 20pt. This comes up waaaaay often and a lot of the time the difference in plays is not even that large, .020 give or take. However, the right play is always 20/14. Even I having created this rule, having collected a fair share of positions on it and seeing it tested time and again have no firm understanding of the why behind it. I accept it as true at this point and get on with life. There will be exceptions, of course, but these often involve other potential plays (like having 3 or 4 men back instead of 2 or hitting in your inner board instead of running either checker or some random massive duplication that pops up etc...)
> Below is a position that just came up today. I "automatically"
> played 20/14 and even Stick might call this a whopper. My guess
> is that duplication of 3's is a big part of the explanation.
>
> XGID=-b----E-D--BbB---cbb-Ab-bA:0:0:1:65:3:0:0:7:10
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:3 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O X O O |
> | X O O | | O O O |
> | O | | |
> | | | |
> | | X | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | X |
> | X | | X |
> | X | | X |
> | O X X | | X O |
> | O X X | | X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 156 O: 132 X-O: 3-0/7
> Cube: 1
> X to play 65
> 1. XG Roller++ Bar/20 21/15 eq:-0.616
> Player: 41.56% (G:8.72% B:0.46%)
> Opponent: 58.44% (G:28.04% B:0.55%)
>
> 2. XG Roller++ Bar/14 eq:-0.716 (-0.100)
> Player: 40.11% (G:8.71% B:0.48%)
> Opponent: 59.89% (G:29.20% B:0.52%)
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

Yea, one play gives the opp. good 2s, 3s, and 4s in an overtly obvious position where they're going to attack you. The other play gives them good 3s and 4s. Also it should go without saying that when I put forth a general rule it's meant for normal match scores/money play. Not that it really changes the analysis here but it should be noted.

Stick

On 2/2/2022 7:17 AM, Stick Rice wrote:
> Also it should go without saying that when I put forth a general rule it's meant for normal match scores/money play. Not that it really changes the analysis here but it should be noted.

But then even I wouldn't have called it a whopper.

---
Tim Chow

On February 2, 2022 at 5:17:18 AM UTC-7, Stick Rice wrote:

> On February 2, 2022 at 12:18:58 AM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:

>> On 11/11/2021 6:09 PM, Stick Rice wrote:

>>> When you have this type of situation (6x from the bar and
>>> the X or entering number is a four or five and you have a
>>> checker on the other point) you always run from the 20pt.
>>> .....
>>> Even I having created this rule, having collected a fair share
>>> of positions on it and seeing it tested time and again have
>>> no firm understanding of the why behind it.

That's okay as long as you have a bank account behind your
"rules"... ;)

>> Below is a position that just came up today. I "automatically"
>> played 20/14 and even Stick might call this a whopper. My
>> guess is that duplication of 3's is a big part of the explanation.

How come you all are so worried about playing safe by leaving
fewer shots, duplicating numbers, etc.? What happened to the
double slots being a next..??

>> 1. XG Roller++ Bar/20 21/15
>> 2. XG Roller++ Bar/14

In this position, the triple blots is a next and the correct play
is Bar/20 8/2.

> Also it should go without saying that when I put forth a general
> rule it's meant for normal match scores/money play. Not that it
> really changes the analysis here but it should be noted.

You think you invented "a rule" out of anything new? Someone
had also thought he had invented a new backgammon variant
and was conceited enough to call it Nackgammon after his
name even though what he suggested had been used for ages
as a common strategy to send reinforcement to the men behind
from the 8 and 6 points using a 6 or a 4.

I can elaborate on this if you guys want but if you think about it
a little, you probably can figure it out on your own. Unfortunately,
you all prefer to confuse yourselves by screwing arount in circles
with shitty bots that you tweaked yourselves in the first place...

I guess it should be no surprise that a flock of idiot believers in
illogical garbage and mentally ill gamblers can't understand bg
nor see it as anything more than a gambling tool... :((

MK

On February 1, 2022 at 10:18:58 PM UTC-7, Tim Chow wrote:

> Below is a position that just came up today. I "automatically"
> played 20/14 and even Stick might call this a whopper....

> XGID=-b----E-D--BbB---cbb-Ab-bA:0:0:1:65:3:0:0:7:10
> 1. XG Roller++ Bar/20 21/15 eq:-0.616
> 2. XG Roller++ Bar/14 eq:-0.716 (-0.100)

The third play is this:

3. XG Roller++ Bar/20 8/2 eq:-1.000 (-0.377)

I decided to dwell on this a little more because for someone
who tries to discredit the bots at every opportunity, this one
is too big of a fish to just catch/release and well worth frying.

What makes this such a big catch is that the bar/20 8/2 (third
option above and "my"correct play) is not even considered by
the bot. Showing that bots can be so terribly wrong may shake
the faith of even the most devout among the bot worshipping
gambling flock.

First, Chow's position is very different than BlueDice's original
position: XGID=-b---AD-C-A-dD----bcA-b-bA:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
which had already two other blots. In this one, there aren't other
blots but there are two towers on X's 8 and 6 points instead.

Playing the 6 from the 20 or 21 point is a "false similarity" and
it shows how stupid one can be to automatically follow stupid
rules without considering the rest of the board carefully first.

Chow's having already posted the rollout allows me to readily
state that the bot's rating bar/20 8/2 so low is a sure indication
that it will immediately double if X plays that.

And from there, what should jump at someone's face is that the
cube will almost never stay at 4, since O will necessarily double
again to 8. Thus, this is a perfect opportunity to jack up the cube,
especially if X considers himself the underdog against the bot.

Surely O can roll some numbers that will decimate X but with the
cube at 2, the resulting scores will be 2/7 vs 3/7 or 4/7 vs 3/7 and
extremely rarely 6/7 vs 3/7, which means that afterwards X will still
have an almost equal chance of winning the match on the average.

O can roll quite awkward numbers also and even in an in-between
case of hitting X on the 2 point accompanied by awkward numbers,
X's chances of winning could improve considerably. Some may even
wish that they could switch to Nackgammon by taking a piece each
from X's 8 and 6 points, to anchor them on O's 23 point, which would
also improve X's chances of winning, although by less.

Let's also consider that with the cube at 2, the bot still gives X about
35% chance of winning to make the score 0/7 vs 5/7 and 8% chance
of winning a gammon and the match with it. Since the bot's numbers
are grossly wrong, X will actually fare much better.

Now, if X gets to redouble to 4, O will be forced to redouble to 8 also
and it will become a DMP game. Assuming that X doubles correctly,
(per the bot's inaccurate equity calculations), X will win more since
O will be forced to double even if incorrectly, (again all per the bot's
inaccurate equity calculations); and also assuming that both X and O
play checker moves like the bot would play.

Needless to say, I suggest that X played by "Murat mutant" would do
much better than the bot's estimates and I will leave it to you all to
convince yourselves of that, perhaps with a little help from Axel. ;)

Of couse, O will also win some matches with the cube at 8 in DMP
games. What we need to do is weigh the sides' chances of winning
at once with cube at 8 vs their chances of winning in playing on from
all other different scores scores reached after the current game.

Last night I played about 60 games from Chow's position against XG
Roller++. X won more of the DMP's. O won more of the games with
the cube at 2, which resulted in all combinations of N/away-N/away
scores. I din't want to waste time playing those matches to the end
since we can extrapolate the expected results, (even if by the bot's
inaccurate calculations, which would be good enough for me also, as
they would apply to both sides from that point on).

I may be surprising you all, as I'm surprising myself, by bothering to
write such stuff but don't get worried about my writing a book yet. :)

MK