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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Re: Rollout: Attack or run?

SubjectAuthor
* Attack or run?Timothy Chow
`* Rollout: Attack or run?Timothy Chow
 `* Re: Rollout: Attack or run?Stick Rice
  `- Re: Rollout: Attack or run?Timothy Chow

1
Attack or run?

<ste3d3$olt$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Attack or run?
Date: Wed, 2 Feb 2022 09:10:41 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 2 Feb 2022 14:10 UTC

XGID=-aaB-BBBC--Ab----d-dcC----:1:-1:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O X | +---+
| O | | O O X | | 2 |
| O | | O O X | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X X X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 140 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 55

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Attack or run?

<stja23$vpv$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Attack or run?
Date: Fri, 4 Feb 2022 08:34:57 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 4 Feb 2022 13:34 UTC

XGID=-aaB-BBBC--Ab----d-dcC----:1:-1:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O X | +---+
| O | | O O X | | 2 |
| O | | O O X | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X X X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 140 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 55

This is the sort of position where Stick would say, "don't worry
about estimating gammons and just make the DMP play #simplegame."
In the variant below, however, Stick would say that the blitzing
play wins so many extra gammons that it constitutes an obvious
exception.

1. Rollout¹ 21/16(3) 11/6 eq:+0.648
Player: 77.55% (G:20.23% B:0.65%)
Opponent: 22.45% (G:3.88% B:0.14%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.642..+0.655) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 21/16(2) 21/11 eq:+0.632 (-0.017)
Player: 77.25% (G:19.44% B:0.69%)
Opponent: 22.75% (G:3.92% B:0.16%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.625..+0.638) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 7/2*(2) 6/1*(2) eq:+0.595 (-0.054)
Player: 68.11% (G:42.77% B:0.35%)
Opponent: 31.89% (G:7.45% B:0.40%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.587..+0.603) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 17 seconds

4. Rollout¹ 21/16(2) 7/2*(2) eq:+0.537 (-0.111)
Player: 70.31% (G:30.19% B:1.12%)
Opponent: 29.69% (G:7.11% B:0.31%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.529..+0.545) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 21/16(3) 8/3 eq:+0.534 (-0.115)
Player: 73.88% (G:18.79% B:0.67%)
Opponent: 26.12% (G:5.06% B:0.19%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.527..+0.541) - [0.0%]

6. Rollout¹ 21/16 11/6 7/2*(2) eq:+0.517 (-0.131)
Player: 68.32% (G:33.47% B:0.98%)
Opponent: 31.68% (G:6.55% B:0.36%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.509..+0.525) - [0.0%]

7. Rollout¹ 21/11 7/2*(2) eq:+0.516 (-0.132)
Player: 69.18% (G:30.93% B:0.94%)
Opponent: 30.82% (G:6.26% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.509..+0.524) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-aaB-BBBBA-Ab----d-dcC----:1:-1:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O X | +---+
| O | | O O X | | 2 |
| O | | O O X | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X X X X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 141 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 55

1. Rollout¹ 7/2*(2) 6/1*(2) eq:+0.724
Player: 71.01% (G:48.34% B:0.41%)
Opponent: 28.99% (G:6.96% B:0.40%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.717..+0.732) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 21/16(2) 21/11 eq:+0.594 (-0.130)
Player: 76.09% (G:18.86% B:0.74%)
Opponent: 23.91% (G:4.51% B:0.17%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.587..+0.601) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 21/16(3) 11/6 eq:+0.590 (-0.135)
Player: 75.86% (G:19.45% B:0.66%)
Opponent: 24.14% (G:4.78% B:0.17%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.583..+0.597) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 11/1* 7/2*(2) eq:+0.579 (-0.145)
Player: 67.94% (G:42.56% B:0.65%)
Opponent: 32.06% (G:7.95% B:0.38%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.571..+0.588) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: Attack or run?

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Subject: Re: Rollout: Attack or run?
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
Injection-Date: Fri, 04 Feb 2022 20:42:36 +0000
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 by: Stick Rice - Fri, 4 Feb 2022 20:42 UTC

On Friday, February 4, 2022 at 8:35:00 AM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
> XGID=-aaB-BBBC--Ab----d-dcC----:1:-1:1:55:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | O | | O O X | +---+
> | O | | O O X | | 2 |
> | O | | O O X | +---+
> | O | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | X | | |
> | O X X | | X X X |
> | O X X X | | X X X O O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 140 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, O own cube
> X to play 55
> This is the sort of position where Stick would say, "don't worry
> about estimating gammons and just make the DMP play #simplegame."
> In the variant below, however, Stick would say that the blitzing
> play wins so many extra gammons that it constitutes an obvious
> exception.
>
> 1. Rollout¹ 21/16(3) 11/6 eq:+0.648
> Player: 77.55% (G:20.23% B:0.65%)
> Opponent: 22.45% (G:3.88% B:0.14%)
> Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.642..+0.655) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 21/16(2) 21/11 eq:+0.632 (-0.017)
> Player: 77.25% (G:19.44% B:0.69%)
> Opponent: 22.75% (G:3.92% B:0.16%)
> Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.625..+0.638) - [0.0%]
>
> 3. Rollout¹ 7/2*(2) 6/1*(2) eq:+0.595 (-0.054)
> Player: 68.11% (G:42.77% B:0.35%)
> Opponent: 31.89% (G:7.45% B:0.40%)
> Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.587..+0.603) - [0.0%]
> Duration: 3 minutes 17 seconds
>
> 4. Rollout¹ 21/16(2) 7/2*(2) eq:+0.537 (-0.111)
> Player: 70.31% (G:30.19% B:1.12%)
> Opponent: 29.69% (G:7.11% B:0.31%)
> Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.529..+0.545) - [0.0%]
>
> 5. Rollout¹ 21/16(3) 8/3 eq:+0.534 (-0.115)
> Player: 73.88% (G:18.79% B:0.67%)
> Opponent: 26.12% (G:5.06% B:0.19%)
> Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.527..+0.541) - [0.0%]
>
> 6. Rollout¹ 21/16 11/6 7/2*(2) eq:+0.517 (-0.131)
> Player: 68.32% (G:33.47% B:0.98%)
> Opponent: 31.68% (G:6.55% B:0.36%)
> Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.509..+0.525) - [0.0%]
>
> 7. Rollout¹ 21/11 7/2*(2) eq:+0.516 (-0.132)
> Player: 69.18% (G:30.93% B:0.94%)
> Opponent: 30.82% (G:6.26% B:0.28%)
> Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.509..+0.524) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
>
> -------
> Variant
> -------
>
> XGID=-aaB-BBBBA-Ab----d-dcC----:1:-1:1:55:0:0:0:0:10
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | O | | O O X | +---+
> | O | | O O X | | 2 |
> | O | | O O X | +---+
> | O | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | O X X | | X X X |
> | O X X X X | | X X X O O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 141 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, O own cube
> X to play 55
> 1. Rollout¹ 7/2*(2) 6/1*(2) eq:+0.724
> Player: 71.01% (G:48.34% B:0.41%)
> Opponent: 28.99% (G:6.96% B:0.40%)
> Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.717..+0.732) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 21/16(2) 21/11 eq:+0.594 (-0.130)
> Player: 76.09% (G:18.86% B:0.74%)
> Opponent: 23.91% (G:4.51% B:0.17%)
> Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.587..+0.601) - [0.0%]
>
> 3. Rollout¹ 21/16(3) 11/6 eq:+0.590 (-0.135)
> Player: 75.86% (G:19.45% B:0.66%)
> Opponent: 24.14% (G:4.78% B:0.17%)
> Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.583..+0.597) - [0.0%]
>
> 4. Rollout¹ 11/1* 7/2*(2) eq:+0.579 (-0.145)
> Player: 67.94% (G:42.56% B:0.65%)
> Opponent: 32.06% (G:7.95% B:0.38%)
> Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.571..+0.588) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

Knowing what I'd say and what I'd play all the time you really should be a better player. In your variant you've nearly halved the dmp wins.

Stick

Re: Rollout: Attack or run?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Rollout: Attack or run?
Date: Sat, 5 Feb 2022 09:44:59 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 5 Feb 2022 14:44 UTC

On 2/4/2022 3:42 PM, Stick Rice wrote:
> In your variant you've nearly halved the dmp wins.

As is obvious to everyone OTB.

---
Tim Chow

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