During 2022, I've done a great job avoiding junk food, and I'm optimistic
that the trend will continue. (No, this is not the result of a "New Year's
Resolution.")
So you can understand that I was (slightly) concerned when XG stated
that I just casually ordered a Whopper in a very standard position.
I was thinking clearly about my play -- it wasn't an oversight Whopper.

I'm trying to take advantage of XG's two blots to start a new point and
slot, thinking that if I'm hit, I get plenty of return shots anyway.
That seems the most blitzianishatory play to me.
Why is 13/9*/4 so bad?
Frustratingly, the bot play was my initial automatic play.
But then I noticed the two blots, had an Aha moment, and slotted the
4 point. Having an Aha moment is not generally a bad thing for me.
I like their song "Take on me", commercial though it is, and enjoy listening
to it on youtube. But this particularly blunderful moment didn't give me
what I hoped for.

Paul

XGID=-----BD-Ba--cE-b-bbcB-aa--:0:0:1:54:0:1:3:0:10
X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

Score is X:0 O:1. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O X O O |
| X O O O | | O X |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O O X | | X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 155 O: 128 X-O: 0-1
Cube: 1
X to play 54

1. XG Roller+ 13/8 13/9* eq:+0.239
Player: 54.70% (G:15.15% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 45.30% (G:6.93% B:0.21%)

2. XG Roller+ 13/9* 9/4 eq:+0.088 (-0.151)
Player: 50.76% (G:14.51% B:0.40%)
Opponent: 49.24% (G:8.44% B:0.25%)

3. 2-ply 13/9* 6/1 eq:-0.008 (-0.248)
Player: 48.37% (G:12.59% B:0.29%)
Opponent: 51.63% (G:8.35% B:0.31%)

4. 2-ply 13/9* 8/3 eq:-0.050 (-0.289)
Player: 47.49% (G:13.16% B:0.40%)
Opponent: 52.51% (G:10.59% B:0.40%)

5. 1-ply 13/4 eq:-0.615 (-0.855)
Player: 29.74% (G:2.33% B:0.06%)
Opponent: 70.26% (G:3.07% B:0.04%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

On 2/5/2022 4:46 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> I'm trying to take advantage of XG's two blots to start a new point and
> slot, thinking that if I'm hit, I get plenty of return shots anyway.
> That seems the most blitzianishatory play to me.
> Why is 13/9*/4 so bad?

In general, the bots say that I'm too hesitant about slotting when the
opponent is on the bar, so I'm not sure my instincts are correct here.
But here I would say that it's not good for you to be hit despite the
opponent's blotty board, because it leaves you with too little ammo to
attack with. You'd have only 8 checkers in the zone, and your back
checkers have to leap a prime to get into the action.

---
Tim Chow

On Saturday, February 5, 2022 at 4:46:42 AM UTC-5, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> During 2022, I've done a great job avoiding junk food, and I'm optimistic
> that the trend will continue. (No, this is not the result of a "New Year's
> Resolution.")
> So you can understand that I was (slightly) concerned when XG stated
> that I just casually ordered a Whopper in a very standard position.
> I was thinking clearly about my play -- it wasn't an oversight Whopper.
>
> I'm trying to take advantage of XG's two blots to start a new point and
> slot, thinking that if I'm hit, I get plenty of return shots anyway.
> That seems the most blitzianishatory play to me.
> Why is 13/9*/4 so bad?
> Frustratingly, the bot play was my initial automatic play.
> But then I noticed the two blots, had an Aha moment, and slotted the
> 4 point. Having an Aha moment is not generally a bad thing for me.
> I like their song "Take on me", commercial though it is, and enjoy listening
> to it on youtube. But this particularly blunderful moment didn't give me
> what I hoped for.
>
> Paul
>
> XGID=-----BD-Ba--cE-b-bbcB-aa--:0:0:1:54:0:1:3:0:10
> X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon
>
> Score is X:0 O:1. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O O | | O X O O |
> | X O O O | | O X |
> | X | | O |
> | X | | |
> | X | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | O | | X |
> | O X | | X X |
> | O O X | | X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 155 O: 128 X-O: 0-1
> Cube: 1
> X to play 54
>
> 1. XG Roller+ 13/8 13/9* eq:+0.239
> Player: 54.70% (G:15.15% B:0.38%)
> Opponent: 45.30% (G:6.93% B:0.21%)
>
> 2. XG Roller+ 13/9* 9/4 eq:+0.088 (-0.151)
> Player: 50.76% (G:14.51% B:0.40%)
> Opponent: 49.24% (G:8.44% B:0.25%)
>
> 3. 2-ply 13/9* 6/1 eq:-0.008 (-0.248)
> Player: 48.37% (G:12.59% B:0.29%)
> Opponent: 51.63% (G:8.35% B:0.31%)
>
> 4. 2-ply 13/9* 8/3 eq:-0.050 (-0.289)
> Player: 47.49% (G:13.16% B:0.40%)
> Opponent: 52.51% (G:10.59% B:0.40%)
>
> 5. 1-ply 13/4 eq:-0.615 (-0.855)
> Player: 29.74% (G:2.33% B:0.06%)
> Opponent: 70.26% (G:3.07% B:0.04%)
>
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

With the builders you have in place after two down you will naturally make good points as a ton of your numbers play well offensively. You get the same value without the risk.

Stick