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interests / rec.games.backgammon / X will probably win a gammon if he doesn't lose

SubjectAuthor
* X will probably win a gammon if he doesn't loseTimothy Chow
+* Re: X will probably win a gammon if he doesn't losepeps...@gmail.com
|+* Re: X will probably win a gammon if he doesn't loseTimothy Chow
||`- Re: X will probably win a gammon if he doesn't losepeps...@gmail.com
|`- Re: X will probably win a gammon if he doesn't loseStick Rice
`- Rollout: X will probably win a gammon if he doesn't loseTimothy Chow

1
X will probably win a gammon if he doesn't lose

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: X will probably win a gammon if he doesn't lose
Date: Tue, 8 Feb 2022 08:34:50 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 8 Feb 2022 13:34 UTC

XGID=bCCD-B--B---a----abcbbbA--:1:-1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O X | +---+
| O | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | X |
| | | X X X |
| X | | X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 70 O: 127 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 11

---
Tim Chow

Re: X will probably win a gammon if he doesn't lose

<28b9ce4a-9ee6-4b3c-bf49-57335ed2f199n@googlegroups.com>

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Date: Tue, 8 Feb 2022 05:46:46 -0800 (PST)
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Subject: Re: X will probably win a gammon if he doesn't lose
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Tue, 8 Feb 2022 13:46 UTC

On Tuesday, February 8, 2022 at 1:34:53 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
> XGID=bCCD-B--B---a----abcbbbA--:1:-1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | O O | | O O O O X | +---+
> | O | | O O O O | | 2 |
> | | | O | +---+
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | O | |
> | | O | X |
> | | | X X X |
> | X | | X X X X |
> | O X | | X X X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 70 O: 127 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, O own cube
> X to play 11

I'm sorry but OTB, it's an automatic 8/6(2) for me. I mean: Why wouldn't I play this?
But QF must loom large here. Such an obvious play is unlikely to be correct.
So I'm sure that es gibt ein Trick dabei.
I wonder whether Stick understands that phrase -- whether his knowledge extends beyond French to include basic German (?)

I'm better at French than German but I've become monolingual, as foreigh exchange visits ended with my childhood.

Paul

Re: X will probably win a gammon if he doesn't lose

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: X will probably win a gammon if he doesn't lose
Date: Wed, 9 Feb 2022 09:17:36 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 9 Feb 2022 14:17 UTC

On 2/8/2022 8:46 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> So I'm sure that es gibt ein Trick dabei.
> I wonder whether Stick understands that phrase -- whether his knowledge extends beyond French to include basic German (?)

Ce n'est pas German. C'est Deutschglish. C'est a dire, les
easy mots sont in German, et les tricky mots sont en anglais.
Even if on ne parle pas German, on peut comprendre Deutschglish.

---
Tim Chow

Re: X will probably win a gammon if he doesn't lose

<52808cda-7b4a-4e50-a23f-d657b6bf9430n@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: X will probably win a gammon if he doesn't lose
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Wed, 9 Feb 2022 17:38 UTC

On Tuesday, February 8, 2022 at 8:46:47 AM UTC-5, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Tuesday, February 8, 2022 at 1:34:53 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
> > XGID=bCCD-B--B---a----abcbbbA--:1:-1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10
> >
> > X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | O O | | O O O O X | +---+
> > | O | | O O O O | | 2 |
> > | | | O | +---+
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | O | |
> > | | O | X |
> > | | | X X X |
> > | X | | X X X X |
> > | O X | | X X X X |
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 70 O: 127 X-O: 0-0
> > Cube: 2, O own cube
> > X to play 11
> I'm sorry but OTB, it's an automatic 8/6(2) for me. I mean: Why wouldn't I play this?
> But QF must loom large here. Such an obvious play is unlikely to be correct.
> So I'm sure that es gibt ein Trick dabei.
> I wonder whether Stick understands that phrase -- whether his knowledge extends beyond French to include basic German (?)
>
> I'm better at French than German but I've become monolingual, as foreigh exchange visits ended with my childhood.
>
> Paul

At college I took all the French, a lot of the Spanish, some of the German, and a bit of Italian.

Stick

Re: X will probably win a gammon if he doesn't lose

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Subject: Re: X will probably win a gammon if he doesn't lose
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Thu, 10 Feb 2022 10:13 UTC

On Wednesday, February 9, 2022 at 2:17:41 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
> On 2/8/2022 8:46 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> > So I'm sure that es gibt ein Trick dabei.
> > I wonder whether Stick understands that phrase -- whether his knowledge extends beyond French to include basic German (?)
> Ce n'est pas German. C'est Deutschglish. C'est a dire, les
> easy mots sont in German, et les tricky mots sont en anglais.
> Even if on ne parle pas German, on peut comprendre Deutschglish.
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

"Trick" is a perfectly valid German word, I think. I haven't researched it though.
Similarly, "facile" is a perfectly valid French word, although it's an English word, too.

Paul

Rollout: X will probably win a gammon if he doesn't lose

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: X will probably win a gammon if he doesn't lose
Date: Thu, 10 Feb 2022 08:29:45 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 10 Feb 2022 13:29 UTC

XGID=bCCD-B--B---a----abcbbbA--:1:-1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O X | +---+
| O | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | X |
| | | X X X |
| X | | X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 70 O: 127 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 11

As Paul noted, this problem is dripping with QF. Under normal
circumstances, re-making your 6pt when your opponent has two on
the bar would be automatic. Here, though, X's main priority is
to escape his straggler and not get another checker sent back in
the process. If he plays 8/6(2), he risks being forced to break
his board, exposing a blot. Of course, as always, there's a
tradeoff---making the 6pt will probably keep O dancing longer,
giving X more time to escape. See the variant below.

1. Rollout¹ 8/7 5/4(2) 2/1 eq:+0.424
Player: 58.38% (G:42.79% B:0.97%)
Opponent: 41.62% (G:5.57% B:0.23%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.418..+0.431) - [87.8%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/7 5/4(2) 3/2 eq:+0.419 (-0.005)
Player: 58.16% (G:42.89% B:1.07%)
Opponent: 41.84% (G:5.76% B:0.23%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.413..+0.425) - [12.2%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/6(2) eq:+0.378 (-0.046)
Player: 56.64% (G:43.30% B:1.58%)
Opponent: 43.36% (G:5.49% B:0.17%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.371..+0.385) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 8/7(2) 5/4(2) eq:+0.367 (-0.057)
Player: 56.50% (G:40.60% B:0.98%)
Opponent: 43.50% (G:4.36% B:0.12%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.360..+0.374) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=bCCC-C--B---a----abcbbbA--:1:-1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O X | +---+
| O | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | |
| | | X X X X |
| X | | X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 72 O: 127 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 11

1. Rollout¹ 8/6(2) eq:+0.484
Player: 59.96% (G:46.04% B:1.80%)
Opponent: 40.04% (G:5.37% B:0.16%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.477..+0.491) - [94.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/7 5/4(3) eq:+0.477 (-0.007)
Player: 59.81% (G:44.08% B:1.32%)
Opponent: 40.19% (G:5.45% B:0.24%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.471..+0.483) - [6.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

1
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