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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Point on the 4pt and then?

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* Point on the 4pt and then?Timothy Chow
`- Rollout: Point on the 4pt and then?Timothy Chow

1
Point on the 4pt and then?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Point on the 4pt and then?
Date: Wed, 9 Feb 2022 09:36:15 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 9 Feb 2022 14:36 UTC

XGID=-a-Ba-E-B---bDa--b-bBbb-b-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O O O |
| X O | | O X O O O |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 144 O: 126 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 22

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Point on the 4pt and then?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Point on the 4pt and then?
Date: Fri, 11 Feb 2022 08:51:14 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 11 Feb 2022 13:51 UTC

XGID=-a-Ba-E-B---bDa--b-bBbb-b-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O O O |
| X O | | O X O O O |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 144 O: 126 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 22

I switched points with 3/1*(2), committing to a blitz. But this is a
bit risky given O's strong board. The alternative of 13/11(2) maintains
both priming and blitzing chances. If O's board were weaker than the
choice would be closer (see variant).

1. Rollout¹ 13/11(2) 6/4*(2) eq:+0.771
Player: 67.77% (G:24.83% B:1.22%)
Opponent: 32.23% (G:8.48% B:0.26%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.759..+0.783) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/9 6/4*(2) eq:+0.697 (-0.074)
Player: 66.12% (G:23.96% B:1.16%)
Opponent: 33.88% (G:9.50% B:0.30%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.685..+0.710) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 6/4*(2) 3/1*(2) eq:+0.654 (-0.118)
Player: 63.75% (G:28.10% B:1.10%)
Opponent: 36.25% (G:10.43% B:0.36%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.642..+0.665) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-a-Ba-E-B---bDa--b-cBbba--:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O O O |
| X O | | O X O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 144 O: 132 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 22

1. Rollout¹ 13/11(2) 6/4*(2) eq:+0.853
Player: 69.33% (G:25.71% B:1.56%)
Opponent: 30.67% (G:7.37% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.843..+0.863) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 6/4*(2) 3/1*(2) eq:+0.829 (-0.024)
Player: 66.07% (G:34.30% B:1.82%)
Opponent: 33.93% (G:9.06% B:0.45%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.820..+0.838) - [0.0%]

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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