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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Jump out or hit? 2

SubjectAuthor
* Jump out or hit? 2Timothy Chow
`- Rollout: Jump out or hit? 2Timothy Chow

1
Jump out or hit? 2

<su5pn2$6nb$2@dont-email.me>

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https://www.novabbs.com/interests/article-flat.php?id=8188&group=rec.games.backgammon#8188

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Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!reader02.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Jump out or hit? 2
Date: Fri, 11 Feb 2022 08:52:33 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 11 Feb 2022 13:52 UTC

XGID=-CB-BaB----A--AAbbccAcB-a-:1:1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O O | | O X O X O |
| O O O | | O O X |
| O | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X O X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 131 O: 106 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 63

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Jump out or hit? 2

<sudmtc$452$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Jump out or hit? 2
Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2022 08:53:46 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 14 Feb 2022 13:53 UTC

XGID=-CB-BaB----A--AAbbccAcB-a-:1:1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O O | | O X O X O |
| O O O | | O O X |
| O | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X O X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 131 O: 106 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 63

When it comes to containment, good outfield coverage can be as good as,
if not better than, hitting. Of course it depends on various factors,
such as how likely the opponent is to dance, how likely X is to cover
if O doesn't hit, and in this position, whether X needs to leap the
prime when he has the chance. For comparison, see the variant.

1. Rollout¹ 20/11 eq:-0.404
Player: 28.35% (G:3.79% B:0.05%)
Opponent: 71.65% (G:10.65% B:0.39%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.411..-0.397) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 14/5* eq:-0.500 (-0.095)
Player: 28.61% (G:4.56% B:0.05%)
Opponent: 71.39% (G:20.52% B:1.03%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.508..-0.492) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 15/12 11/5* eq:-0.513 (-0.109)
Player: 27.70% (G:4.45% B:0.05%)
Opponent: 72.30% (G:20.03% B:0.85%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.521..-0.505) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-BB-BaC----A--AAbbccAcB-a-:1:1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O O | | O X O X O |
| O O O | | O O X |
| O | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X O X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 136 O: 106 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 63

1. Rollout¹ 14/5* eq:-0.249
Player: 36.26% (G:8.75% B:0.12%)
Opponent: 63.74% (G:19.06% B:1.01%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.259..-0.238) - [89.6%]

2. Rollout¹ 20/11 eq:-0.257 (-0.008)
Player: 33.60% (G:7.15% B:0.12%)
Opponent: 66.40% (G:10.93% B:0.42%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.264..-0.249) - [10.4%]

3. Rollout¹ 15/12 11/5* eq:-0.275 (-0.026)
Player: 35.15% (G:8.21% B:0.12%)
Opponent: 64.85% (G:18.29% B:0.81%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.284..-0.266) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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