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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Jump out or hit?

SubjectAuthor
* Jump out or hit?Timothy Chow
`- Rollout: Jump out or hit?Timothy Chow

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Jump out or hit?

<su3423$cu3$2@dont-email.me>

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https://www.novabbs.com/interests/article-flat.php?id=8186&group=rec.games.backgammon#8186

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Jump out or hit?
Date: Thu, 10 Feb 2022 08:30:42 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 10 Feb 2022 13:30 UTC

XGID=-aBBBBBAA--------c-ccBc-bA:1:-1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O X O O | +---+
| O | | O O X O O | | 2 |
| O | | O O O | +---+
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X X X |
| X X | | X X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 122 O: 92 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Jump out or hit?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Jump out or hit?
Date: Sat, 12 Feb 2022 12:17:52 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 12 Feb 2022 17:17 UTC

XGID=-aBBBBBAA--------c-ccBc-bA:1:-1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O X O O | +---+
| O | | O O X O O | | 2 |
| O | | O O O | +---+
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X X X |
| X X | | X X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 122 O: 92 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64

I was a little surprised by this one because what's not to like about
putting the opponent on the bar against a five-point board? But there
aren't a whole lot of gammons to be won here, and after 7/1*, X does
not have many rolls that cover the 1pt (if O misses), whereas after
21/15, his 1's and 8's all make a six-prime, which would pretty much
lock up the game.

1. Rollout¹ Bar/15 eq:+0.156
Player: 65.20% (G:7.65% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 34.80% (G:14.12% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.151..+0.161) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/21 7/1* eq:+0.091 (-0.065)
Player: 62.08% (G:8.08% B:0.13%)
Opponent: 37.92% (G:12.78% B:0.23%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.083..+0.100) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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