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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: 5-away/5-away recube action

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* 5-away/5-away recube actionTimothy Chow
`- Rollout: 5-away/5-away recube actionTimothy Chow

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5-away/5-away recube action

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: 5-away/5-away recube action
Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2022 08:54:45 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 15 Feb 2022 13:54 UTC

XGID=---BaBC-B-B--AA--A--Accec-:1:1:1:00:2:2:0:7:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:2 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X X | | X O O O O |
| | | O O O O |
| | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| X X | | X X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X X O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 134 O: 55 X-O: 2-2/7
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: 5-away/5-away recube action

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: 5-away/5-away recube action
Date: Thu, 17 Feb 2022 09:17:25 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 17 Feb 2022 14:17 UTC

XGID=---BaBC-B-B--AA--A--Accec-:1:1:1:00:2:2:0:7:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:2 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X X | | X O O O O |
| | | O O O O |
| | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| X X | | X X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X X O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 134 O: 55 X-O: 2-2/7
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

At this score and cube value, O has to drop more readily than
for money in non-gammonish positions like this one. I saw
this position as being very far from a double for money and
did not think about redoubling. However, XG thinks it's time
to turn the cube.

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 68.58% (G:3.28% B:0.05%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.43% (G:11.47% B:0.15%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 69.41% (G:3.49% B:0.07%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.59% (G:12.09% B:0.24%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.683 (-0.053)
Redouble/Take: +0.737
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.263)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.008 (+0.676..+0.691)
Confidence Double: ± 0.010 (+0.727..+0.747)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

-----
Money
-----

XGID=---BaBC-B-B--AA--A--Accec-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X X | | X O O O O |
| | | O O O O |
| | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| X X | | X X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X X O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 134 O: 55 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 68.14% (G:3.54% B:0.07%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.86% (G:10.64% B:0.04%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 68.65% (G:3.77% B:0.10%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.35% (G:9.99% B:0.04%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.619
Redouble/Take: +0.530 (-0.089)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.381)

Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 15.9%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.008 (+0.611..+0.627)
Confidence Double: ± 0.013 (+0.517..+0.543)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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