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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Early blitz cube

SubjectAuthor
* Early blitz cubeTimothy Chow
+* Re: Early blitz cubepeps...@gmail.com
|`* Re: Early blitz cubeStick Rice
| `- Re: Early blitz cubepeps...@gmail.com
`* Rollout: Early blitz cubeTimothy Chow
 `* Re: Rollout: Early blitz cubepeps...@gmail.com
  `- Re: Rollout: Early blitz cubeTimothy Chow

1
Early blitz cube

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Early blitz cube
Date: Thu, 17 Feb 2022 09:18:46 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 17 Feb 2022 14:18 UTC

XGID=a--AaCC-B---dD-A-c-cA-b-a-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O X O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| O | | |
| O | | X X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 139 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

Re: Early blitz cube

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Subject: Re: Early blitz cube
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
Injection-Date: Fri, 18 Feb 2022 15:29:25 +0000
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Fri, 18 Feb 2022 15:29 UTC

On Thursday, February 17, 2022 at 2:18:49 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
> XGID=a--AaCC-B---dD-A-c-cA-b-a-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 2 O:Player 1
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X X O | | O X O O |
> | X O | | O O |
> | X O | | O |
> | X | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | O | |
> | O | | |
> | O | | X X |
> | O X | | X X |
> | O X | | X X O X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 139 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action

D/T -- there are enough crushing threats to make a cube turn mandatory but good things can happen for the opponent too.
The opponent might anchor or hit back.

I am much more confident in the double than the take.
D/P wouldn't surprise me either, but D/T is my choice.

I wouldn't be surprised to hear a hit single by Tim about how he didn't think it was a pass.
We know about the pop-music genre "Lost love songs" but, actually, Bad Take songs are almost as popular.

Paul

Re: Early blitz cube

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Subject: Re: Early blitz cube
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8"
 by: Stick Rice - Fri, 18 Feb 2022 19:50 UTC

On Friday, February 18, 2022 at 10:29:27 AM UTC-5, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Thursday, February 17, 2022 at 2:18:49 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
> > XGID=a--AaCC-B---dD-A-c-cA-b-a-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
> >
> > X:Player 2 O:Player 1
> > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | X X O | | O X O O |
> > | X O | | O O |
> > | X O | | O |
> > | X | | |
> > | | | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | O | |
> > | O | | |
> > | O | | X X |
> > | O X | | X X |
> > | O X | | X X O X |
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 139 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
> > Cube: 1
> > X on roll, cube action
> D/T -- there are enough crushing threats to make a cube turn mandatory but good things can happen for the opponent too.
> The opponent might anchor or hit back.
>
> I am much more confident in the double than the take.
> D/P wouldn't surprise me either, but D/T is my choice.
>
> I wouldn't be surprised to hear a hit single by Tim about how he didn't think it was a pass.
> We know about the pop-music genre "Lost love songs" but, actually, Bad Take songs are almost as popular.
>
> Paul

The blot on the opponent's ace point (checker out of play) is a massive thorn in the side for the player being cubed.

Stick

Re: Early blitz cube

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Subject: Re: Early blitz cube
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Fri, 18 Feb 2022 20:55 UTC

On Friday, February 18, 2022 at 7:50:40 PM UTC, Stick Rice wrote:
> On Friday, February 18, 2022 at 10:29:27 AM UTC-5, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> > On Thursday, February 17, 2022 at 2:18:49 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
> > > XGID=a--AaCC-B---dD-A-c-cA-b-a-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
> > >
> > > X:Player 2 O:Player 1
> > > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> > > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > > | X X O | | O X O O |
> > > | X O | | O O |
> > > | X O | | O |
> > > | X | | |
> > > | | | |
> > > | |BAR| |
> > > | | O | |
> > > | O | | |
> > > | O | | X X |
> > > | O X | | X X |
> > > | O X | | X X O X |
> > > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > > Pip count X: 139 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
> > > Cube: 1
> > > X on roll, cube action
> > D/T -- there are enough crushing threats to make a cube turn mandatory but good things can happen for the opponent too.
> > The opponent might anchor or hit back.
> >
> > I am much more confident in the double than the take.
> > D/P wouldn't surprise me either, but D/T is my choice.
> >
> > I wouldn't be surprised to hear a hit single by Tim about how he didn't think it was a pass.
> > We know about the pop-music genre "Lost love songs" but, actually, Bad Take songs are almost as popular.
> >
> > Paul
> The blot on the opponent's ace point (checker out of play) is a massive thorn in the side for the player being cubed.
>
> Stick

Yes, I figured that which is why I thought a pass was certainly likely.
I couldn't decide between pass or marginal take.
If it's a big pass, I should drink two strong black coffees as a punishment.
It would be a big punishment because coffee needs milk and sugar in my opinion.

Paul

Rollout: Early blitz cube

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Early blitz cube
Date: Sat, 19 Feb 2022 19:45:31 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 20 Feb 2022 00:45 UTC

XGID=a--AaCC-B---dD-A-c-cA-b-a-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O X O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| O | | |
| O | | X X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 139 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Stick's comment exactly coincides with why I posted this position.
OTB, I made my usual inventory: 9 checkers in the zone, two-point board
with a blot, back checkers partially escaped, O has a blot on X's
4pt but no other blots in the outfield, O has made her 3pt. I concluded
that this one should be close, and I took.

What I didn't pay much attention to OTB was O's blot on her 1pt. I
decided to post this problem to help me remember to include that in
my standard inventory. See the variant below.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 72.71% (G:32.55% B:1.11%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.29% (G:6.07% B:0.27%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 72.85% (G:33.14% B:1.16%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.15% (G:6.46% B:0.32%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.927 (-0.073)
Double/Take: +1.257 (+0.257)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.010 (+0.916..+0.937)
Confidence Double: ± 0.017 (+1.239..+1.274)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=a--AaCC-B---dD-A-c-dA-b---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O X O |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| O | | |
| O | | X X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 139 O: 152 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 69.08% (G:28.21% B:0.74%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.92% (G:7.11% B:0.31%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 69.14% (G:29.77% B:0.82%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.86% (G:7.41% B:0.38%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.776 (-0.199)
Double/Take: +0.975
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.025)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.765..+0.787)
Confidence Double: ± 0.017 (+0.958..+0.992)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: Early blitz cube

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Subject: Re: Rollout: Early blitz cube
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Sun, 20 Feb 2022 11:25 UTC

On Sunday, February 20, 2022 at 12:45:35 AM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
> XGID=a--AaCC-B---dD-A-c-cA-b-a-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 2 O:Player 1
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X X O | | O X O O |
> | X O | | O O |
> | X O | | O |
> | X | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | O | |
> | O | | |
> | O | | X X |
> | O X | | X X |
> | O X | | X X O X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 139 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action
> Stick's comment exactly coincides with why I posted this position.
> OTB, I made my usual inventory: 9 checkers in the zone, two-point board
> with a blot, back checkers partially escaped, O has a blot on X's
> 4pt but no other blots in the outfield, O has made her 3pt. I concluded
> that this one should be close, and I took.
>
> What I didn't pay much attention to OTB was O's blot on her 1pt. I
> decided to post this problem to help me remember to include that in
> my standard inventory. See the variant below.
>
> Analyzed in Rollout
> No double
> Player Winning Chances: 72.71% (G:32.55% B:1.11%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 27.29% (G:6.07% B:0.27%)
> Double/Take
> Player Winning Chances: 72.85% (G:33.14% B:1.16%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 27.15% (G:6.46% B:0.32%)
>
> Cubeful Equities:
> No double: +0.927 (-0.073)
> Double/Take: +1.257 (+0.257)
> Double/Pass: +1.000
>
> Best Cube action: Double / Pass
>
> Rollout:
> 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
> Confidence No Double: ± 0.010 (+0.916..+0.937)
> Confidence Double: ± 0.017 (+1.239..+1.274)
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
>
> -------
> Variant
> -------
>
> XGID=a--AaCC-B---dD-A-c-dA-b---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
> X:Player 2 O:Player 1
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X X O | | O X O |
> | X O | | O O |
> | X O | | O |
> | X | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | O | |
> | O | | |
> | O | | X X |
> | O X | | X X |
> | O X | | X X O X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 139 O: 152 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action
> Analyzed in Rollout
> No double
> Player Winning Chances: 69.08% (G:28.21% B:0.74%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 30.92% (G:7.11% B:0.31%)
> Double/Take
> Player Winning Chances: 69.14% (G:29.77% B:0.82%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 30.86% (G:7.41% B:0.38%)
>
> Cubeful Equities:
> No double: +0.776 (-0.199)
> Double/Take: +0.975
> Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.025)
>
> Best Cube action: Double / Take
>
> Rollout:
> 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
> Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.765..+0.787)
> Confidence Double: ± 0.017 (+0.958..+0.992)
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

So variantizing to eliminate O's acepoint blot generally
puts us in marginal pass/take territory (depending of course
on exactly how we variantize)?

Stimmt dass?

Paul

Re: Rollout: Early blitz cube

<sutscb$ne9$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Rollout: Early blitz cube
Date: Sun, 20 Feb 2022 12:05:12 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 20 Feb 2022 17:05 UTC

On 2/20/2022 6:25 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> So variantizing to eliminate O's acepoint blot generally
> puts us in marginal pass/take territory (depending of course
> on exactly how we variantize)?
>
> Stimmt dass?

Well, I kind of think of it more as a "point count" system.
Actually I don't have a formal system of assigning points, but
if I did, I would assign something like +1 or +2 or -1 or -2 to
various features of a position and add them all up to help make
a cube decision. O's ace-point blot is almost as valuable to X as
covering X's own 3pt blot.

---
Tim Chow

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