novaBBS - rec.games.backgammon - Will Tim take this one?

Will Tim take this one?

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Subject: Will Tim take this one?
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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by: peps...@gmail.com - Fri, 18 Feb 2022 20:50 UTC

Tried to paste from XG
But the formatting came out garbled.
So I had to paste the XGID into bglog.org
Just to check.

XGID=-GCBB-------------b--Acee-:0:0:-1:00:0:16:3:0:10

Score is X:16 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O |
| | | O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | 7 |
| |BAR| |
| | | X X |
| | | X X |
| | | X X X |
| X | | X X X |
| X | | O X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 38 O: 48 X-O: 16-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Re: Will Tim take this one?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Will Tim take this one?
Date: Fri, 18 Feb 2022 21:17:46 -0500
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by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 19 Feb 2022 02:17 UTC

On 2/18/2022 3:50 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> Tried to paste from XG
> But the formatting came out garbled.
> So I had to paste the XGID into bglog.org
> Just to check.
>
> XGID=-GCBB-------------b--Acee-:0:0:-1:00:0:16:3:0:10
>
> Score is X:16 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | | | O O O O |
> | | | O O O O |
> | | | O O |
> | | | O |
> | | | 7 |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | X X |
> | | | X X |
> | | | X X X |
> | X | | X X X |
> | X | | O X X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 38 O: 48 X-O: 16-0
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action

Yes, I'd take this one. The race is bad but not hopeless for O, and
O has some shot vig too: Half of X's rolls blot immediately. Neither
the race vig nor the shot vig by itself is enough to justify a take,
but I think the two combined should justify it.

---
Tim Chow

Re: Will Tim take this one?

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Subject: Re: Will Tim take this one?
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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by: peps...@gmail.com - Tue, 22 Feb 2022 10:17 UTC

On Saturday, February 19, 2022 at 2:17:49 AM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
> On 2/18/2022 3:50 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> > Tried to paste from XG
> > But the formatting came out garbled.
> > So I had to paste the XGID into bglog.org
> > Just to check.
> >
> > XGID=-GCBB-------------b--Acee-:0:0:-1:00:0:16:3:0:10
> >
> > Score is X:16 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | | | O O O O |
> > | | | O O O O |
> > | | | O O |
> > | | | O |
> > | | | 7 |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | | X X |
> > | | | X X |
> > | | | X X X |
> > | X | | X X X |
> > | X | | O X X X |
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 38 O: 48 X-O: 16-0
> > Cube: 1
> > X on roll, cube action
> Yes, I'd take this one. The race is bad but not hopeless for O, and
> O has some shot vig too: Half of X's rolls blot immediately. Neither
> the race vig nor the shot vig by itself is enough to justify a take,
> but I think the two combined should justify it.

It rolled out to about a 0.993 take.
Although your response doesn't convey the marginality, I'll
be generous and score this one in your favour.

The rollout is on my other computer, but I did keep it, and will post it if you
(or anyone else) is interested.
I actually passed this, and my pass was fairly quick and confident, too.
So I was surprised that XG marked my pass as an error.
But when I appealed by rolling out, my decision's marginality was respected
and I got the don't-shout verdict in the rollout.

(Don't-shout = "too close to call" [that might be an obscure reference]).

I'm not sure how to interpret the pip-count. Just using the raw 48/38 counts would make it
a very easy take when combined with shot vig (which it isn't). You somehow have to weight my straggler's journey
across the board, and I don't know how to do this. Maybe I should interview people who've made solo journeys
hiking mountains or crossing the channel, and ask them how efficient their journeys were.

The hitting-a-shot probability must be much less than 25% so the fact that this is takable means the racing chances must
be somewhat significant. I wonder if we can Axelise the answer to this type of problem.

Paul

Re: Will Tim take this one?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Will Tim take this one?
Date: Tue, 22 Feb 2022 09:03:11 -0500
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by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 22 Feb 2022 14:03 UTC

On 2/22/2022 5:17 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> I'm not sure how to interpret the pip-count. Just using the raw 48/38 counts would make it
> a very easy take when combined with shot vig (which it isn't).

How do you figure this? The shot vig doesn't seem that high
to me. You not only have to get and hit the shot; you have to
win from there. That's not a given since your board is crunched.

---
Tim Chow

Re: Will Tim take this one?

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Subject: Re: Will Tim take this one?
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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by: peps...@gmail.com - Tue, 22 Feb 2022 14:50 UTC

On Tuesday, February 22, 2022 at 2:03:15 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
> On 2/22/2022 5:17 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> > I'm not sure how to interpret the pip-count. Just using the raw 48/38 counts would make it
> > a very easy take when combined with shot vig (which it isn't).
> How do you figure this? The shot vig doesn't seem that high
> to me. You not only have to get and hit the shot; you have to
> win from there. That's not a given since your board is crunched.

Your equity (given the rollout) is very close to 25%.
What would be your racing vig/ shot vig portions?
20% racing vig, 5% shot vig? Is that your opinion?

Paul

Re: Will Tim take this one?

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Subject: Re: Will Tim take this one?
From: nasti.ch...@gmail.com (Nasti Chestikov)
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by: Nasti Chestikov - Tue, 22 Feb 2022 17:51 UTC

On Tuesday, 22 February 2022 at 14:50:05 UTC, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Tuesday, February 22, 2022 at 2:03:15 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
> > On 2/22/2022 5:17 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> > > I'm not sure how to interpret the pip-count. Just using the raw 48/38 counts would make it
> > > a very easy take when combined with shot vig (which it isn't).
> > How do you figure this? The shot vig doesn't seem that high
> > to me. You not only have to get and hit the shot; you have to
> > win from there. That's not a given since your board is crunched.
> Your equity (given the rollout) is very close to 25%.
> What would be your racing vig/ shot vig portions?
> 20% racing vig, 5% shot vig? Is that your opinion?
>
> Paul

Can you two get a room?

FFS.

Re: Will Tim take this one?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Will Tim take this one?
Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2022 08:11:37 -0500
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by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 23 Feb 2022 13:11 UTC

On 2/22/2022 12:51 PM, Nasti Chestikov wrote:
> Can you two get a room?

No. Please book one for us! You still haven't paid me for that
vacation that you promised to the winner of your contest.

---
Tim Chow

Re: Will Tim take this one?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Will Tim take this one?
Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2022 08:17:06 -0500
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by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 23 Feb 2022 13:17 UTC

On 2/22/2022 9:50 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Tuesday, February 22, 2022 at 2:03:15 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
>> On 2/22/2022 5:17 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
>>> I'm not sure how to interpret the pip-count. Just using the raw 48/38 counts would make it
>>> a very easy take when combined with shot vig (which it isn't).
>> How do you figure this? The shot vig doesn't seem that high
>> to me. You not only have to get and hit the shot; you have to
>> win from there. That's not a given since your board is crunched.
>
> Your equity (given the rollout) is very close to 25%.
> What would be your racing vig/ shot vig portions?
> 20% racing vig, 5% shot vig? Is that your opinion?

If we define "racing vig" as the percentage of the time that
the taker wins without ever hitting a shot, and "shot vig" as
the rest, I'd guess something like 10% racing vig and 15% shot vig.

---
Tim Chow

The ends justify the means. -- after Matthew Prior

interests / rec.games.backgammon / Will Tim take this one?

Subject	Author
Will Tim take this one?	peps...@gmail.com
Re: Will Tim take this one?	Timothy Chow
Re: Will Tim take this one?	peps...@gmail.com
Re: Will Tim take this one?	Timothy Chow
Re: Will Tim take this one?	peps...@gmail.com
Re: Will Tim take this one?	Nasti Chestikov
Re: Will Tim take this one?	Timothy Chow
Re: Will Tim take this one?	Timothy Chow