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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Doublets are usually lucky

SubjectAuthor
* Doublets are usually luckyTimothy Chow
`- Rollout: Doublets are usually luckyTimothy Chow

1
Doublets are usually lucky

<suiu4d$kvn$3@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Doublets are usually lucky
Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2022 08:27:40 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 16 Feb 2022 13:27 UTC

XGID=-a-BB-B-Ba--dE---bbe--B---:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X |
| X O O | | O X |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O X | | X X X |
| O O X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 151 O: 152 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 55

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Doublets are usually lucky

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Doublets are usually lucky
Date: Fri, 18 Feb 2022 21:23:05 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 19 Feb 2022 02:23 UTC

XGID=-a-BB-B-Ba--dE---bbe--B---:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X |
| X O O | | O X |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O X | | X X X |
| O O X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 151 O: 152 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 55

Double 5's early in the game can sometimes be awkward, if the back
checkers can't move. Here, X has to decide whether to switch points,
which is a rather committal blitzing play in a position where X's
checkers are not ideally placed for a blitz. O's outfield blot gives
X extra incentive to hit. XG switches points, but see also the
variant position below.

1. Rollout¹ 13/8(2) 6/1*(2) eq:+0.253
Player: 54.15% (G:20.92% B:0.31%)
Opponent: 45.85% (G:8.97% B:0.40%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.238..+0.269) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/8(2) 13/3 eq:+0.180 (-0.073)
Player: 53.09% (G:19.08% B:0.57%)
Opponent: 46.91% (G:9.63% B:0.37%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.167..+0.194) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/3 6/1*(2) eq:+0.165 (-0.088)
Player: 52.44% (G:19.79% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 47.56% (G:9.60% B:0.44%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.150..+0.180) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 13/3(2) eq:+0.147 (-0.106)
Player: 51.97% (G:19.33% B:0.56%)
Opponent: 48.03% (G:9.96% B:0.51%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.134..+0.161) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-a-BB-B-B---eE---bbe--B---:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X |
| X O O | | O X |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| |BAR| |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 151 O: 149 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 55

1. Rollout¹ 13/8(2) 13/3 eq:+0.154
Player: 52.70% (G:17.15% B:0.41%)
Opponent: 47.30% (G:9.22% B:0.40%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.142..+0.167) - [84.8%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/8(2) 6/1*(2) eq:+0.145 (-0.010)
Player: 52.31% (G:17.48% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 47.69% (G:9.07% B:0.37%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.131..+0.158) - [15.2%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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