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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Hit or make the 5pt?

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* Hit or make the 5pt?Timothy Chow
`- Rollout: Hit or make the 5pt?Timothy Chow

1
Hit or make the 5pt?

<supkbo$mhr$2@dont-email.me>

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https://www.novabbs.com/interests/article-flat.php?id=8223&group=rec.games.backgammon#8223

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Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!reader02.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Hit or make the 5pt?
Date: Fri, 18 Feb 2022 21:23:53 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 19 Feb 2022 02:23 UTC

XGID=-b----E-E--AcBa---abbbb-B-:1:1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O O X |
| X | | O O O O X |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| X | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X | +---+
| O X | | X O | | 2 |
| O X X | | X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 155 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 63

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Hit or make the 5pt?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Hit or make the 5pt?
Date: Sun, 20 Feb 2022 12:10:48 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 20 Feb 2022 17:10 UTC

XGID=-b----E-E--AcBa---abbbb-B-:1:1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O O X |
| X | | O O O O X |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| X | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X | +---+
| O X | | X O | | 2 |
| O X X | | X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 155 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 63

This is a tough call I think. Making the 5pt gives X some much-needed
structure, unstacking his heavy 8pt and cleaning up an outfield blot,
whereas breaking anchor leaves X open to a gammonish counterattack.
But if O makes her bar point while X still has two checkers on O's
ace point then it's almost game over for X.

1. Rollout¹ 24/18* 11/8 eq:-0.539
Player: 30.52% (G:7.33% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 69.48% (G:32.24% B:1.82%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.548..-0.529) - [89.6%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/18* 18/15 eq:-0.547 (-0.009)
Player: 30.37% (G:7.10% B:0.41%)
Opponent: 69.63% (G:33.12% B:1.94%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.557..-0.538) - [10.4%]

3. Rollout¹ 11/5 8/5 eq:-0.590 (-0.052)
Player: 25.78% (G:7.09% B:0.40%)
Opponent: 74.22% (G:26.29% B:1.85%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.600..-0.581) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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