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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Lots of choices

SubjectAuthor
* Lots of choicesTimothy Chow
`- Rollout: Lots of choicesTimothy Chow

1
Lots of choices

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Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!reader02.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Lots of choices
Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2022 08:27:08 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 23 Feb 2022 13:27 UTC

XGID=-BBBBbBA----cBA--bAdaba---:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O X | | O O O O |
| X O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O | | X O X X X X |
| O X | | X O X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 97 O: 135 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 44

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Lots of choices

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Lots of choices
Date: Fri, 25 Feb 2022 09:35:03 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 25 Feb 2022 14:35 UTC

XGID=-BBBBbBA----cBA--bAdaba---:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O X | | O O O O |
| X O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O | | X O X X X X |
| O X | | X O X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 97 O: 135 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 44

X's huge advantage in board strength allow him to play boldly, but
sorting through all the possibilities here is a challenge. Let me
focus on comparing just two plays: assuming X plays 18/10 13/9,
should he then play 14/10 or 13/9 with the last 4? To figure this
out, it is not enough to count how many rolls allow X to hit; we
have to assess the quality of these hits and whether X will even
dare to hit. After 14/10, for example, XG does not hit if O rolls
62 or 41, but after 13/9, XG will hit with 62 or 51. X's 10pt after
14/10 is a better "guard" (against O breaking anchor to hit) than
X's 9pt after 13/9. The duplication of 2's after 13/9 is less
significant than the duplication of aces after 14/10.

1. Rollout¹ 18/10 14/10 13/9 eq:+0.595
Player: 65.96% (G:11.90% B:0.27%)
Opponent: 34.04% (G:6.13% B:0.27%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.582..+0.608) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 18/6 14/10 eq:+0.557 (-0.038)
Player: 66.84% (G:8.21% B:0.13%)
Opponent: 33.16% (G:3.94% B:0.12%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.547..+0.568) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 18/10 13/9(2) eq:+0.446 (-0.149)
Player: 62.15% (G:14.20% B:0.28%)
Opponent: 37.85% (G:7.21% B:0.34%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.435..+0.457) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 18/10 14/10 7/3 eq:+0.442 (-0.154)
Player: 62.84% (G:9.23% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 37.16% (G:4.63% B:0.15%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.430..+0.454) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 18/14 13/9(2) 7/3 eq:+0.435 (-0.160)
Player: 62.41% (G:9.48% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 37.59% (G:4.88% B:0.16%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.425..+0.446) - [0.0%]

6. Rollout¹ 14/6 13/9(2) eq:+0.393 (-0.203)
Player: 60.12% (G:16.79% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 39.88% (G:5.41% B:0.16%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.381..+0.404) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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