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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Prime versus prime

SubjectAuthor
* Prime versus primeTimothy Chow
`- Rollout: Prime versus primeTimothy Chow

1
Prime versus prime

<sv85a0$anu$3@dont-email.me>

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Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!reader02.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Prime versus prime
Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2022 09:38:55 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 24 Feb 2022 14:38 UTC

XGID=--aBBBCBB--A-----bcdbbaA--:1:-1:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O X | +---+
| O O | | O O O | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X X | | X X X X |
| X X X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 106 O: 105 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 32

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Prime versus prime

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Prime versus prime
Date: Sat, 26 Feb 2022 12:06:46 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 26 Feb 2022 17:06 UTC

XGID=--aBBBCBB--A-----bcdbbaA--:1:-1:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O X | +---+
| O O | | O O O | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X X | | X X X X |
| X X X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 106 O: 105 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 32

Usually, in a priming battle, the right strategy is to do one's best to
roll it forward smoothly, and not dump any checkers any deeper into
one's board than the front of the prime. On the other hand, X's timing
is shaky here and he wants to hold his prime as long as possible; 6/1
gives him the most spare pips to play with, whereas the alternatives
give him a slightly awkward distribution of spares. It's a subtle
tradeoff, as the variant illustrates.

1. Rollout¹ 6/1 eq:+0.029
Player: 56.60% (G:11.63% B:0.40%)
Opponent: 43.40% (G:7.81% B:0.35%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.019..+0.038) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 11/8 6/4 eq:-0.058 (-0.087)
Player: 53.65% (G:11.08% B:0.39%)
Opponent: 46.35% (G:8.36% B:0.33%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.066..-0.050) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 11/6 eq:-0.060 (-0.089)
Player: 53.84% (G:11.57% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 46.16% (G:8.50% B:0.37%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.071..-0.050) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 11/9 6/3 eq:-0.075 (-0.104)
Player: 53.23% (G:11.34% B:0.40%)
Opponent: 46.77% (G:8.90% B:0.36%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.083..-0.067) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--aBBBCBB---A----bcdbbaA--:1:-1:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O X | +---+
| O O | | O O O | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X X | | X X X X |
| X X X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 107 O: 105 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 32

1. Rollout¹ 12/7 eq:+0.134
Player: 59.81% (G:13.67% B:0.47%)
Opponent: 40.19% (G:6.82% B:0.26%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.125..+0.143) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 6/1 eq:+0.090 (-0.044)
Player: 58.73% (G:12.07% B:0.45%)
Opponent: 41.27% (G:7.38% B:0.31%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.081..+0.099) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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