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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Hit?

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* Hit?Timothy Chow
`- Rollout: Hit?Timothy Chow

1
Hit?

<svapg6$tpm$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Hit?
Date: Fri, 25 Feb 2022 09:35:49 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 25 Feb 2022 14:35 UTC

XGID=-aDBBD------------bbdbbBbA:1:1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O X O |
| O | | O O O O X O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| | | X X | +---+
| | | X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 113 O: 86 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 21

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Hit?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Hit?
Date: Sun, 27 Feb 2022 09:48:16 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 27 Feb 2022 14:48 UTC

XGID=-aDBBD------------bbdbbBbA:1:1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O X O |
| O | | O O O O X O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| | | X X | +---+
| | | X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 113 O: 86 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 21

Volunteering a direct shot when your opponent has a five-point board
might seem insane to some, but X's situation is pretty desperate, so
he is willing to take some risks. But there are two problems with
hitting here. The first is that it loses a lot of extra gammons if
X gets another checker sent back. The second is that even if O does
not hit back (or even dances), X will probably have trouble getting
over O's five-prime. While X's priming chances aren't great, they're
not negligible; many of O's rolls weaken her prime and increase X's
chances significantly.

See also the variant below.

1. Rollout¹ Bar/23 5/4 eq:-0.776
Player: 15.29% (G:0.49% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 84.71% (G:14.43% B:0.35%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.780..-0.772) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/23 2/1* eq:-0.860 (-0.084)
Player: 15.74% (G:0.64% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 84.26% (G:23.46% B:0.79%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.865..-0.854) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-aDBBD-------------ddbbBbA:1:1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O X O |
| | | O O O O X O |
| | | O O |
| | | O O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| | | X X | +---+
| | | X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 113 O: 84 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 21

1. Rollout¹ Bar/23 5/4 eq:-0.754
Player: 16.47% (G:0.49% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 83.53% (G:15.09% B:0.39%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.759..-0.750) - [99.9%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/23 2/1* eq:-0.765 (-0.011)
Player: 19.64% (G:0.48% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 80.36% (G:23.68% B:0.86%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.771..-0.760) - [0.1%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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