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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Scrambling home

SubjectAuthor
* Scrambling homeTimothy Chow
`- Rollout: Scrambling homeTimothy Chow

1
Scrambling home

<svdmqj$2kh$2@dont-email.me>

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https://www.novabbs.com/interests/article-flat.php?id=8257&group=rec.games.backgammon#8257

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Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!reader02.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Scrambling home
Date: Sat, 26 Feb 2022 12:08:34 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 26 Feb 2022 17:08 UTC

XGID=-CBBBbCAAa---------bbbAbd-:1:-1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O X O O | +---+
| | | O O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| | | X O X X X X |
| O X X | | X O X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 76 O: 94 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 41

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Scrambling home

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Scrambling home
Date: Mon, 28 Feb 2022 07:56:52 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 28 Feb 2022 12:56 UTC

XGID=-CBBBbCAAa---------bbbAbd-:1:-1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O X O O | +---+
| | | O O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| | | X O X X X X |
| O X X | | X O X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 76 O: 94 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 41

This is perhaps an anti-QF problem. The "obvious" play of 22/18 8/7
rolls out waaay ahead of the alternatives. OTB, however, I somehow
managed to outsmart myself by reasoning that there was no point in
making the bar point when I would just have to clear it later. There
is some logic to this reasoning, but X's top priority by far is to
bring his straggler around safely.

Note that in the variant below, where X is disincentivized from
advancing his straggler because it would walk into a direct shot,
bearing in both checkers does not roll out ahead of the more mundane
8/7 6/2.

1. Rollout¹ 22/18 8/7 eq:+0.365
Player: 70.98% (G:6.53% B:0.04%)
Opponent: 29.02% (G:0.63% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.361..+0.369) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/7 6/2 eq:+0.068 (-0.298)
Player: 58.92% (G:6.53% B:0.08%)
Opponent: 41.08% (G:1.50% B:0.03%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.062..+0.073) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/4 7/6 eq:+0.032 (-0.333)
Player: 58.18% (G:5.01% B:0.05%)
Opponent: 41.82% (G:0.54% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.028..+0.037) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-CBBBbCAA-----a----bbbAbd-:1:-1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O X O O | +---+
| | | O O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| | | X O X X X X |
| X X | | X O X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 76 O: 89 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 41

1. Rollout¹ 8/7 6/2 eq:+0.036
Player: 57.61% (G:5.73% B:0.06%)
Opponent: 42.39% (G:0.87% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.031..+0.041) - [99.8%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/4 7/6 eq:+0.025 (-0.010)
Player: 56.81% (G:6.91% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 43.19% (G:0.52% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.020..+0.030) - [0.2%]

3. Rollout¹ 22/18 8/7 eq:+0.022 (-0.014)
Player: 58.43% (G:2.98% B:0.04%)
Opponent: 41.57% (G:0.79% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.017..+0.027) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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