I'll let Stick have fun with the Nactation.

XGID=-a--A-E-B---cD-aad-e----BA:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O X |
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| | X | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 175 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 51

---
Tim Chow

On Wednesday, March 2, 2022 at 1:14:09 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
> I'll let Stick have fun with the Nactation.
>
> XGID=-a--A-E-B---cD-aad-e----BA:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O O | | O X |
> | X O | | O X |
> | X O | | O |
> | X O | | O |
> | | X | O |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | X |
> | | | X |
> | O | | X |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X | | X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 175 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 51

With our opponent's one-point-board, we don't mind being hit that much, but our concern is our opponent's huge edge
in development and attacking opportunities. We are prepared to go to a lot of trouble to take away part of the opponent's
next roll.
I think we hit 6/1*, and I think that's a good QF answer, too.
I've noticed that XG does a lot of plays which give itself two blots in its inner board in situations where I wouldn't do that.
Learn from XG. Why not?

Paul

XGID=-a--A-E-B---cD-aad-e----BA:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O X |
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| | X | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 175 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 51

A well-known adage is, "Don't slot while split." The reasoning behind
the adage is that it gives your opponent too many attacking chances,
especially double-hitting rolls. Of course, there are exceptions,
especially if there is duplication (which implies fewer double-hitting
rolls) and/or you have an anchor. Here, after X enters bar/20, he
still has an ace-point anchor and hence is not exactly "split." And
the "wild" play of bar/20 6/5 duplicates both 3's and 4's to hit.
Still, it's a spectacular-looking play! Perhaps the main point is
that the alternatives are all clearly unpleasant as well. Bar/20 24/23
isn't any safer. Bar/24 creates an ugly stack on the 24pt, and the
5 doesn't play well either.

1. Rollout¹ Bar/20 6/5 eq:-0.573
Player: 39.23% (G:8.59% B:0.36%)
Opponent: 60.77% (G:25.35% B:3.03%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.588..-0.557) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/20 24/23 eq:-0.667 (-0.094)
Player: 35.63% (G:8.07% B:0.36%)
Opponent: 64.37% (G:25.56% B:2.04%)
Confidence: ±0.020 (-0.688..-0.647) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ Bar/24 6/1* eq:-0.694 (-0.121)
Player: 35.50% (G:8.42% B:0.25%)
Opponent: 64.50% (G:24.49% B:2.67%)
Confidence: ±0.018 (-0.713..-0.676) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ Bar/24 13/8 eq:-0.706 (-0.133)
Player: 34.90% (G:8.39% B:0.29%)
Opponent: 65.10% (G:23.33% B:2.20%)
Confidence: ±0.020 (-0.726..-0.686) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

On Friday, March 4, 2022 at 1:36:08 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
> XGID=-a--A-E-B---cD-aad-e----BA:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O O | | O X |
> | X O | | O X |
> | X O | | O |
> | X O | | O |
> | | X | O |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | X |
> | | | X |
> | O | | X |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X | | X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 175 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 51
> A well-known adage is, "Don't slot while split." The reasoning behind
> the adage is that it gives your opponent too many attacking chances,
> especially double-hitting rolls. Of course, there are exceptions,
> especially if there is duplication (which implies fewer double-hitting
> rolls) and/or you have an anchor. Here, after X enters bar/20, he
> still has an ace-point anchor and hence is not exactly "split." And
> the "wild" play of bar/20 6/5 duplicates both 3's and 4's to hit.
> Still, it's a spectacular-looking play! Perhaps the main point is
> that the alternatives are all clearly unpleasant as well. Bar/20 24/23
> isn't any safer. Bar/24 creates an ugly stack on the 24pt, and the
> 5 doesn't play well either.
>
> 1. Rollout¹ Bar/20 6/5 eq:-0.573
> Player: 39.23% (G:8.59% B:0.36%)
> Opponent: 60.77% (G:25.35% B:3.03%)
> Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.588..-0.557) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ Bar/20 24/23 eq:-0.667 (-0.094)
> Player: 35.63% (G:8.07% B:0.36%)
> Opponent: 64.37% (G:25.56% B:2.04%)
> Confidence: ±0.020 (-0.688..-0.647) - [0.0%]
>
> 3. Rollout¹ Bar/24 6/1* eq:-0.694 (-0.121)
> Player: 35.50% (G:8.42% B:0.25%)
> Opponent: 64.50% (G:24.49% B:2.67%)
> Confidence: ±0.018 (-0.713..-0.676) - [0.0%]
>
> 4. Rollout¹ Bar/24 13/8 eq:-0.706 (-0.133)
> Player: 34.90% (G:8.39% B:0.29%)
> Opponent: 65.10% (G:23.33% B:2.20%)
> Confidence: ±0.020 (-0.726..-0.686) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>

Thanks. I was quite confident on that one, although wrong.
I seem to do badly on problems, where we're a big underdog and
are therefore much worse whatever we play.
Maybe a good tactic is to put yourself in the opponent's shoes, and think
about the worst position that they could face that would put the biggest dent in
their advantage. Maybe a good approach OTB too.
If you're good at maximising your advantages, you should be equally good at minimising your
disadvantages.

Paul