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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Pottle or not? 2

SubjectAuthor
* Pottle or not? 2Timothy Chow
`- Rollout: Pottle or not? 2Timothy Chow

1
Pottle or not? 2

<svt4lb$58b$2@dont-email.me>

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https://www.novabbs.com/interests/article-flat.php?id=8318&group=rec.games.backgammon#8318

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Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!reader02.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Pottle or not? 2
Date: Fri, 4 Mar 2022 08:36:44 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 4 Mar 2022 13:36 UTC

XGID=----a-EbC--BcDaa---c-bb--A:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O |
| X | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X O | | X |
| O X X O | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 153 O: 149 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 62

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Pottle or not? 2

<t02l0u$fru$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Pottle or not? 2
Date: Sun, 6 Mar 2022 10:46:35 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 6 Mar 2022 15:46 UTC

XGID=----a-EbC--BcDaa---c-bb--A:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O |
| X | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X O | | X |
| O X X O | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 153 O: 149 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 62

I have quoted Mochy before as saying that 8/2 is "illegal in Denmark."

http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?read=139316

In this position, an intermediate might play 8/2 quickly because
stepping into a triple shot seems like leading with the chin.
Paradoxically, a more advanced player might have more trouble with
this decision. See the variant for comparison.

1. Rollout¹ Bar/23 8/2 eq:-0.409
Player: 41.41% (G:9.39% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 58.59% (G:21.60% B:0.55%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.423..-0.396) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/17 eq:-0.500 (-0.091)
Player: 40.02% (G:6.52% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 59.98% (G:20.91% B:0.49%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.512..-0.488) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=----a-EbC--BcD--aa-c-bb--A:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O |
| X | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X O | | X |
| O X X O | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 153 O: 145 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61

1. Rollout¹ Bar/18 eq:-0.543
Player: 38.85% (G:5.83% B:0.27%)
Opponent: 61.15% (G:21.14% B:0.42%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.549..-0.536) - [99.7%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/24 8/2 eq:-0.557 (-0.014)
Player: 37.71% (G:7.47% B:0.33%)
Opponent: 62.29% (G:20.95% B:0.58%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.565..-0.549) - [0.3%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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