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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Pottle or not?

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* Pottle or not?Timothy Chow
`- Rollout: Pottle or not?Timothy Chow

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Pottle or not?

<svqeaf$7rp$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Pottle or not?
Date: Thu, 3 Mar 2022 08:03:11 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 3 Mar 2022 13:03 UTC

XGID=---CBCC-A-b-cB-----dAcba--:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O X O O O |
| X | | O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X X X |
| O O | | X X X X |
| O O X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 104 O: 113 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 42

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Pottle or not?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Pottle or not?
Date: Sat, 5 Mar 2022 07:29:24 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 5 Mar 2022 12:29 UTC

XG 3-ply plays 5/1 3/1.

XGID=---CBCC-A-b-cB-----dAcba--:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O X O O O |
| X | | O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X X X |
| O O | | X X X X |
| O O X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 104 O: 113 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 42

It's thematic to race when ahead in the race, and O's 2's and 4's
are duplicated to hit and cover if X plays 20/14. But should X pay
now or pay later? XG 3-ply plays 5/1 3/1, but the rollout below
disagrees.

1. Rollout¹ 20/14 eq:+0.287
Player: 58.35% (G:9.35% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 41.65% (G:3.35% B:0.07%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.279..+0.295) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 5/1 3/1 eq:+0.204 (-0.083)
Player: 55.85% (G:10.37% B:0.13%)
Opponent: 44.15% (G:4.28% B:0.08%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.193..+0.215) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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