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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Pottle or not? 3

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* Pottle or not? 3Timothy Chow
`- Rollout: Pottle or not? 3Timothy Chow

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Pottle or not? 3

<t02l4v$fru$2@dont-email.me>

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Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!reader02.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Pottle or not? 3
Date: Sun, 6 Mar 2022 10:48:46 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 6 Mar 2022 15:48 UTC

XGID=--a--bDBC--Cb-aB-a-bbbb--A:1:1:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X O | | O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X X | | X | +---+
| O X X X | | X O | | 2 |
| O X X X | | X O O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 150 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 61

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Pottle or not? 3

<t08jei$ad4$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Pottle or not? 3
Date: Tue, 8 Mar 2022 16:56:33 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 8 Mar 2022 21:56 UTC

XGID=--a--bDBC--Cb-aB-a-bbbb--A:1:1:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X O | | O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X X | | X | +---+
| O X X X | | X O | | 2 |
| O X X X | | X O O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 150 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 61

This time, 8/2* even hits, but the rollout below says it's a whopper.

I had to make several adjustments to get an interesting variant.

1. Rollout¹ Bar/18 eq:-0.230
Player: 40.49% (G:5.79% B:0.26%)
Opponent: 59.51% (G:26.17% B:0.69%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.240..-0.220) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/24 8/2* eq:-0.336 (-0.106)
Player: 36.57% (G:6.90% B:0.31%)
Opponent: 63.43% (G:27.73% B:0.95%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.346..-0.327) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-a---bEBB--Cb-aB-a-bbbb--A:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X O | | O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X | +---+
| O X X X | | X O | | 2 |
| O X X X | | X O O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 148 O: 145 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 52

1. Rollout¹ Bar/23 6/1* eq:-0.318
Player: 37.70% (G:7.24% B:0.32%)
Opponent: 62.30% (G:29.32% B:0.99%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.329..-0.307) - [59.7%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/18 eq:-0.320 (-0.002)
Player: 37.63% (G:5.98% B:0.27%)
Opponent: 62.37% (G:28.27% B:0.78%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.330..-0.310) - [40.3%]

3. Rollout¹ Bar/23 11/6 eq:-0.373 (-0.055)
Player: 35.93% (G:7.10% B:0.32%)
Opponent: 64.07% (G:30.28% B:1.02%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.383..-0.363) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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