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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Re: Another TG problem

SubjectAuthor
* Another TG problempeps...@gmail.com
`* Re: Another TG problemTimothy Chow
 `* Re: Another TG problempeps...@gmail.com
  `* Re: Another TG problemAxel Reichert
   `- Re: Another TG problempeps...@gmail.com

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Another TG problem

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Subject: Another TG problem
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Fri, 4 Mar 2022 19:34 UTC

XGID=-LB--aa-b----A-ab-bbbb----:3:1:1:00:10:3:3:0:10
X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

Score is X:10 O:3. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O O |
| O O | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | 12 |
| | | X |
| | | X | +---+
| O | | X X | | 8 |
| O | | O O X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 29 O: 145 X-O: 10-3
Cube: 8, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Clearly a huge pass, but is X too good to double?

Paul

Re: Another TG problem

<svvkoe$kjt$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Another TG problem
Date: Sat, 5 Mar 2022 07:23:41 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 5 Mar 2022 12:23 UTC

On 3/4/2022 2:34 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> XGID=-LB--aa-b----A-ab-bbbb----:3:1:1:00:10:3:3:0:10
> X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon
>
>
> Score is X:10 O:3. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O O | | O O O |
> | O O | | O O O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | 12 |
> | | | X |
> | | | X | +---+
> | O | | X X | | 8 |
> | O | | O O X X | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 29 O: 145 X-O: 10-3
> Cube: 8, X own cube
> X on roll, cube action
>
> Clearly a huge pass, but is X too good to double?

There are way too many ways for X to regain his market here
so I don't think this is too good. In fact, I'd be tempted
to take this as O, but it's probably a pass.

---
Tim Chow

Re: Another TG problem

<6294b18b-ff02-4b07-bf48-5f0b6761ac7en@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: Another TG problem
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Sun, 6 Mar 2022 18:00 UTC

On Saturday, March 5, 2022 at 12:23:44 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
> On 3/4/2022 2:34 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> > XGID=-LB--aa-b----A-ab-bbbb----:3:1:1:00:10:3:3:0:10
> > X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon
> >
> >
> > Score is X:10 O:3. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | X O O O | | O O O |
> > | O O | | O O O |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | | 12 |
> > | | | X |
> > | | | X | +---+
> > | O | | X X | | 8 |
> > | O | | O O X X | +---+
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 29 O: 145 X-O: 10-3
> > Cube: 8, X own cube
> > X on roll, cube action
> >
> > Clearly a huge pass, but is X too good to double?
> There are way too many ways for X to regain his market here
> so I don't think this is too good. In fact, I'd be tempted
> to take this as O, but it's probably a pass.
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

You're basically right on this. It's extremely marginal between a take and a pass.
Nothing wrong with taking. I would take OTB.
I think there's potentially a lot of skill left in the position if the roller doesn't roll home.
So the practical play is probably pass if you're the weaker player, take if you're the stronger player.

Paul

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 60.01% (G:48.24% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 39.99% (G:3.88% B:0.09%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 60.51% (G:48.40% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 39.49% (G:3.79% B:0.08%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.643, Double=+1.311

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.655 (-0.345)
Redouble/Take: +1.001 (+0.001)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.005 (+0.650..+0.661)
Confidence Double: ± 0.016 (+0.985..+1.017)

Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 55.7%

Duration: 10 minutes 49 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Re: Another TG problem

<8735judc4f.fsf@axel-reichert.de>

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From: mai...@axel-reichert.de (Axel Reichert)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Another TG problem
Date: Sun, 06 Mar 2022 22:06:40 +0100
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 by: Axel Reichert - Sun, 6 Mar 2022 21:06 UTC

"peps...@gmail.com" <pepstein5@gmail.com> writes:

> It's extremely marginal between a take and a pass. Nothing wrong with
> taking. I would take OTB.

I am a big fan of Trice here: "If in doubt [whether too good], double:
You will get terrible takes." I will happily apply this heuristic up to,
say, an (estimated) equity of 1.1. The non-experts (including me) in our
club will take these positions way too often to render my double wrong.

Best regards

Axel

Re: Another TG problem

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<8735judc4f.fsf@axel-reichert.de>
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Subject: Re: Another TG problem
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Sun, 6 Mar 2022 21:16 UTC

On Sunday, March 6, 2022 at 9:06:42 PM UTC, Axel Reichert wrote:
> "peps...@gmail.com" <peps...@gmail.com> writes:
>
> > It's extremely marginal between a take and a pass. Nothing wrong with
> > taking. I would take OTB.
> I am a big fan of Trice here: "If in doubt [whether too good], double:
> You will get terrible takes." I will happily apply this heuristic up to,
> say, an (estimated) equity of 1.1. The non-experts (including me) in our
> club will take these positions way too often to render my double wrong.
>
> Best regards
>
> Axel

Ok, but this is a take/pass problem, not at all a TG problem.
Holding here is worse than a 0.3 error. It's a spectacularly bad hold.
I pretended it was a TG problem to try and fool Tim. (It didn't work.)

Paul

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