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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Rip two or fill in the gap?

SubjectAuthor
* Rip two or fill in the gap?Timothy Chow
`- Rollout: Rip two or fill in the gap?Timothy Chow

1
Rip two or fill in the gap?

<svvl4d$kjt$3@dont-email.me>

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https://www.novabbs.com/interests/article-flat.php?id=8328&group=rec.games.backgammon#8328

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Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!reader02.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rip two or fill in the gap?
Date: Sat, 5 Mar 2022 07:30:05 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 5 Mar 2022 12:30 UTC

XGID=-CDb-DD--------a--abbcbb--:1:-1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X X X |
| | | X X X X |
| | | X X O X X |
| | | X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 55 O: 105 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 21

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Rip two or fill in the gap?

<t05270$ldk$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Rip two or fill in the gap?
Date: Mon, 7 Mar 2022 08:43:59 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 7 Mar 2022 13:43 UTC

XGID=-CDb-DD--------a--abbcbb--:1:-1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X X X |
| | | X X X X |
| | | X X O X X |
| | | X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 55 O: 105 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 21

Most of us have been trained to recognize that a gap in the home board
in front of the opponent's anchor is potentially very dangerous. So it
may be tempting to "eliminate" that danger here by filling in the gap.
But why are gaps dangerous? It's because they might force you to leave
a blot. But how exactly is X going to be forced to leave a blot here?
He has plenty of spares, and by the time he has to blot, O may have left
to run off the gammon. If X had no 2's to play, then it might be a
different story (see variant), but even then, ripping two has the
benefit of increasing X's gammon wins.

1. Rollout¹ 2/Off 1/Off eq:+0.835
Player: 89.09% (G:9.53% B:0.08%)
Opponent: 10.91% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.831..+0.840) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 6/5 2/Off eq:+0.797 (-0.038)
Player: 88.24% (G:7.30% B:0.04%)
Opponent: 11.76% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.794..+0.801) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 2/1 2/Off eq:+0.792 (-0.044)
Player: 88.02% (G:7.52% B:0.04%)
Opponent: 11.98% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.788..+0.796) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 6/4 5/4 eq:+0.756 (-0.080)
Player: 87.24% (G:4.58% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 12.76% (G:0.10% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.753..+0.758) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-CAb-DD--------a--abbcbb--:1:-1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| | | X X X |
| | | X X O X |
| | | X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 49 O: 105 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 21

1. Rollout¹ 6/4 5/4 eq:+0.892
Player: 90.79% (G:11.22% B:0.09%)
Opponent: 9.21% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.889..+0.895) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 2/Off 1/Off eq:+0.878 (-0.015)
Player: 87.31% (G:18.24% B:0.46%)
Opponent: 12.69% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.873..+0.883) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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