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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Can't really Pottle this time

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* Can't really Pottle this timeTimothy Chow
`- Rollout: Can't really Pottle this timeTimothy Chow

1
Can't really Pottle this time

<t0528m$ldk$2@dont-email.me>

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https://www.novabbs.com/interests/article-flat.php?id=8346&group=rec.games.backgammon#8346

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Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!reader02.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Can't really Pottle this time
Date: Mon, 7 Mar 2022 08:44:55 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 7 Mar 2022 13:44 UTC

XGID=---C-BCbC---bBa-Abbcc---A-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X O O | | O O X |
| X O O | | O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X X |
| O X O | | X X X |
| O X O | | X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 127 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Can't really Pottle this time

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Can't really Pottle this time
Date: Wed, 9 Mar 2022 22:20:12 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 10 Mar 2022 03:20 UTC

XGID=---C-BCbC---bBa-Abbcc---A-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X O O | | O O X |
| X O O | | O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X X |
| O X O | | X X X |
| O X O | | X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 127 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61

Moving the blot on the 16pt to reduce shots seemed "obvious" to me, but
it actually gives O free rein to improve her position on her side of the
board. If X makes his 2pt then he has a strong board that provides some
protection against being attacked. But see the variant below as well,
where O's midpoint is not stripped and she has fewer ways to make the
front of her prime.

1. Rollout¹ 8/2 3/2 eq:-0.548
Player: 35.04% (G:10.88% B:0.35%)
Opponent: 64.96% (G:16.53% B:0.67%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.559..-0.537) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 16/9 eq:-0.636 (-0.089)
Player: 32.60% (G:8.51% B:0.27%)
Opponent: 67.40% (G:13.32% B:0.49%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.649..-0.624) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 24/23 16/10 eq:-0.650 (-0.102)
Player: 32.51% (G:8.51% B:0.28%)
Opponent: 67.49% (G:13.78% B:0.54%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.662..-0.637) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=---C-BCbC---cBa-Abbcb---A-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X O O | | O O X |
| X O O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X X |
| O X O | | X X X |
| O X O | | X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 127 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61

1. Rollout¹ 16/9 eq:-0.508
Player: 35.76% (G:10.48% B:0.29%)
Opponent: 64.24% (G:12.56% B:0.46%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.520..-0.495) - [99.9%]

2. Rollout¹ 16/10 3/2 eq:-0.535 (-0.028)
Player: 35.26% (G:11.11% B:0.33%)
Opponent: 64.74% (G:13.68% B:0.58%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.548..-0.522) - [0.1%]

3. Rollout¹ 16/10 6/5 eq:-0.543 (-0.036)
Player: 34.98% (G:10.29% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 65.02% (G:13.04% B:0.50%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.556..-0.531) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 24/23 16/10 eq:-0.554 (-0.046)
Player: 34.72% (G:10.23% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 65.28% (G:12.37% B:0.51%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.567..-0.540) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 8/2 3/2 eq:-0.563 (-0.055)
Player: 35.23% (G:10.17% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 64.77% (G:15.62% B:0.60%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.574..-0.551) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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