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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: 7-away/2-away cube action

SubjectAuthor
* 7-away/2-away cube actionTimothy Chow
`- Rollout: 7-away/2-away cube actionTimothy Chow

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7-away/2-away cube action

<t08jg6$ad4$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: 7-away/2-away cube action
Date: Tue, 8 Mar 2022 16:57:25 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 8 Mar 2022 21:57 UTC

XGID=-a--BCC-a---dD---c-c-b-AaB:0:0:1:00:0:5:0:7:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:5 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X O |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| X | X | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O | | X X |
| O | | X X X |
| O O | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 166 O: 144 X-O: 0-5/7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: 7-away/2-away cube action

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: 7-away/2-away cube action
Date: Thu, 10 Mar 2022 13:30:16 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 10 Mar 2022 18:30 UTC

XGID=-a--BCC-a---dD---c-c-b-AaB:0:0:1:00:0:5:0:7:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:5 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X O |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| X | X | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O | | X X |
| O | | X X X |
| O O | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 166 O: 144 X-O: 0-5/7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

I don't think too many people would double this one OTB, so QF would
suggest that the bot doubles here. But no; see the rollout below.
On the other hand, XG says that I missed a double on the previous
roll (scroll down for the rollout).

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 50.05% (G:18.25% B:0.67%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 49.95% (G:17.07% B:2.02%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 50.64% (G:18.25% B:0.62%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 49.36% (G:18.65% B:2.23%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.271
Double/Take: +0.207 (-0.063)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.729)

Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 7.4%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.015 (+0.255..+0.286)
Confidence Double: ± 0.016 (+0.191..+0.224)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

-------------
Previous roll
-------------

XGID=-a-aBBC-A--AdD---c-cab--AA:0:0:1:00:0:5:0:7:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:5 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 156 O: 153 X-O: 0-5/7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 57.32% (G:20.84% B:1.08%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 42.68% (G:13.43% B:2.55%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 57.69% (G:21.49% B:1.07%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 42.31% (G:14.56% B:2.84%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.542 (-0.110)
Double/Take: +0.652
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.348)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.014 (+0.529..+0.556)
Confidence Double: ± 0.017 (+0.636..+0.669)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---------
Next roll
---------

XGID=---aBCC-a---dD---c-bab-AaB:0:0:1:00:0:5:0:7:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:5 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X O |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | |
| X | X | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O | | X X |
| O | | X X X |
| O O | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 166 O: 141 X-O: 0-5/7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 53.34% (G:22.11% B:1.35%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 46.66% (G:14.89% B:2.13%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 53.66% (G:21.97% B:1.27%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 46.34% (G:15.68% B:1.85%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.410 (-0.074)
Double/Take: +0.484
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.516)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.015 (+0.395..+0.425)
Confidence Double: ± 0.018 (+0.466..+0.502)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow

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