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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Pottle or not? 4

SubjectAuthor
* Pottle or not? 4Timothy Chow
`* Rollout: Pottle or not? 4Timothy Chow
 `* Re: Rollout: Pottle or not? 4Stick Rice
  `- Re: Rollout: Pottle or not? 4Timothy Chow

1
Pottle or not? 4

<t0g8p1$p7q$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Pottle or not? 4
Date: Fri, 11 Mar 2022 14:43:27 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 11 Mar 2022 19:43 UTC

XGID=-B-BAbB-B-B-bC--b--d--bcA-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O |
| X | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X X | | X O X X |
| O X X | | X O X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 123 O: 120 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Pottle or not? 4

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Pottle or not? 4
Date: Sun, 13 Mar 2022 08:52:36 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 13 Mar 2022 12:52 UTC

XGID=-B-BAbB-B-B-bC--b--d--bcA-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O |
| X | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X X | | X O X X |
| O X X | | X O X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 123 O: 120 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

Pottling would seem to be thematic here---this roll puts X slightly
ahead in the pip count, and O's midpoint is stripped. However, there
is an attractive and constructive alternative play, 10/6 10/4. X's
straggler is not in much danger of being attacked or primed, so XG
favors 10/6 10/4.

In the variant, I have shifted X's blot from his 4pt to his 2pt. Now
the alternative play of 8/4 8/2 is not as attractive.

1. Rollout¹ 10/6 10/4 eq:+0.106
Player: 53.65% (G:8.57% B:0.26%)
Opponent: 46.35% (G:8.38% B:0.12%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.098..+0.115) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/14 eq:+0.006 (-0.101)
Player: 51.25% (G:5.44% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 48.75% (G:9.57% B:0.18%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.003..+0.015) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-BAB-bB-B-B-bC--b--d--bcA-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O |
| X | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X X | | X O X X |
| O X X | | X O X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 121 O: 120 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

1. Rollout¹ 24/14 eq:-0.008
Player: 51.18% (G:5.53% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 48.82% (G:10.98% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.020..+0.005) - [96.7%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/4 8/2 eq:-0.022 (-0.015)
Player: 50.46% (G:11.60% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 49.54% (G:13.22% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.033..-0.012) - [3.3%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: Pottle or not? 4

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Subject: Re: Rollout: Pottle or not? 4
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Mon, 14 Mar 2022 03:36 UTC

On Sunday, March 13, 2022 at 8:52:41 AM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:
> XGID=-B-BAbB-B-B-bC--b--d--bcA-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O | | O O O X |
> | X O | | O O O |
> | X | | O O |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | O X X | | X O X X |
> | O X X | | X O X X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 123 O: 120 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 64
> Pottling would seem to be thematic here---this roll puts X slightly
> ahead in the pip count, and O's midpoint is stripped. However, there
> is an attractive and constructive alternative play, 10/6 10/4. X's
> straggler is not in much danger of being attacked or primed, so XG
> favors 10/6 10/4.
>
> In the variant, I have shifted X's blot from his 4pt to his 2pt. Now
> the alternative play of 8/4 8/2 is not as attractive.
>
> 1. Rollout¹ 10/6 10/4 eq:+0.106
> Player: 53.65% (G:8.57% B:0.26%)
> Opponent: 46.35% (G:8.38% B:0.12%)
> Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.098..+0.115) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 24/14 eq:+0.006 (-0.101)
> Player: 51.25% (G:5.44% B:0.23%)
> Opponent: 48.75% (G:9.57% B:0.18%)
> Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.003..+0.015) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
>
> -------
> Variant
> -------
>
> XGID=-BAB-bB-B-B-bC--b--d--bcA-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O | | O O O X |
> | X O | | O O O |
> | X | | O O |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | O X X | | X O X X |
> | O X X | | X O X X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 121 O: 120 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 64
> 1. Rollout¹ 24/14 eq:-0.008
> Player: 51.18% (G:5.53% B:0.20%)
> Opponent: 48.82% (G:10.98% B:0.25%)
> Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.020..+0.005) - [96.7%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 8/4 8/2 eq:-0.022 (-0.015)
> Player: 50.46% (G:11.60% B:0.30%)
> Opponent: 49.54% (G:13.22% B:0.25%)
> Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.033..-0.012) - [3.3%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

The variant should be lifting the blot then running is clear otherwise strengthening/making the board has too much value.

Stick

Re: Rollout: Pottle or not? 4

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Rollout: Pottle or not? 4
Date: Mon, 14 Mar 2022 08:32:04 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 14 Mar 2022 12:32 UTC

On 3/13/2022 11:36 PM, Stick Rice wrote:
> The variant should be lifting the blot then running is clear otherwise strengthening/making the board has too much value.

Lifting the blot is certainly *a* variant, but the tradeoff between
running and strengthening the board is a common theme in Pottle
problems, and not often discussed.

---
Tim Chow

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