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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Damn the torpedoes?

SubjectAuthor
* Damn the torpedoes?Timothy Chow
`- Rollout: Damn the torpedoes?Timothy Chow

1
Damn the torpedoes?

<t0j5u8$m8d$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Damn the torpedoes?
Date: Sat, 12 Mar 2022 17:13:26 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 12 Mar 2022 22:13 UTC

If you don't recognize the subject line:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Mobile_Bay#%22Damn_the_torpedoes%22

XGID=-A-BCaC-Baaa----bbbcbBAA--:2:1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O O X X X |
| O O O | | O O X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X | +---+
| X | | X X X | | 4 |
| O O O X | | X O X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 140 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 4, X own cube
X to play 63

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Damn the torpedoes?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Damn the torpedoes?
Date: Mon, 14 Mar 2022 08:30:17 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 14 Mar 2022 12:30 UTC

XGID=-A-BCaC-Baaa----bbbcbBAA--:2:1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O O X X X |
| O O O | | O O X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X | +---+
| X | | X X X | | 4 |
| O O O X | | X O X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 140 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 4, X own cube
X to play 63

The "safe" play is 8/2 4/1, but it's not really safe, and it does not
have much of an upside. However, even if you reject 8/2 4/1, there
are several bold plays to choose from. They all have a similar downside
so it makes sense to pick the play with the biggest upside, and that is
21/15 8/5*.

1. Rollout¹ 21/15 8/5* eq:-0.822
Player: 21.07% (G:7.29% B:0.49%)
Opponent: 78.93% (G:35.81% B:3.95%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.835..-0.809) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/2 8/5* eq:-0.925 (-0.103)
Player: 16.35% (G:3.56% B:0.16%)
Opponent: 83.65% (G:33.20% B:1.44%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.934..-0.916) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/2 4/1 eq:-0.932 (-0.110)
Player: 14.49% (G:1.66% B:0.03%)
Opponent: 85.51% (G:28.00% B:1.04%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.939..-0.924) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 21/12 eq:-0.937 (-0.115)
Player: 15.31% (G:2.56% B:0.16%)
Opponent: 84.69% (G:29.79% B:2.41%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.946..-0.929) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 21/15 4/1 eq:-0.948 (-0.126)
Player: 14.82% (G:3.23% B:0.16%)
Opponent: 85.18% (G:30.60% B:2.05%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.956..-0.940) - [0.0%]

6. Rollout¹ 8/2 6/3 eq:-0.953 (-0.131)
Player: 14.08% (G:1.48% B:0.02%)
Opponent: 85.92% (G:28.71% B:1.14%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.961..-0.946) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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