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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Attack or run?

SubjectAuthor
* Attack or run?Timothy Chow
`- Rollout: Attack or run?Timothy Chow

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Attack or run?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Attack or run?
Date: Tue, 15 Mar 2022 07:54:58 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 15 Mar 2022 11:54 UTC

XGID=-a-B-CCB----cB---d-dBc--A-:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O X |
| X O | | O X O |
| O | | O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 143 O: 131 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 54

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Attack or run?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Attack or run?
Date: Thu, 17 Mar 2022 08:02:18 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 17 Mar 2022 12:02 UTC

XGID=-a-B-CCB----cB---d-dBc--A-:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O X |
| X O | | O X O |
| O | | O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 143 O: 131 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 54

There are some similarities between this problem and the previous
problem "Attack or prime?" X wants to contain O's straggler, and
hitting is one strategy. But the 1pt and the bar point can't be
part of the same six-prime. Even if O dances, XG says it's not yet
a double. X already has a start on a pretty good prime; filling in
the 4pt before O escapes would be huge, and the spares on the 5pt
and 6pt can potentially help with that. The alternative play of
24/15 provides outfield coverage if O jumps out.

Nevertheless, the decision is still a delicate one, as the variant
below illustrates.

1. Rollout¹ 24/15 eq:+0.496
Player: 62.35% (G:15.83% B:0.40%)
Opponent: 37.65% (G:6.74% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.485..+0.507) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 6/1* 5/1 eq:+0.395 (-0.102)
Player: 56.97% (G:23.27% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 43.03% (G:7.16% B:0.34%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.382..+0.407) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-a-B-CCB----dB---d-dBb--A-:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O X |
| X O | | O X O |
| O | | O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O | | X X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 143 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 54

1. Rollout¹ 6/1* 5/1 eq:+0.615
Player: 60.76% (G:27.21% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 39.24% (G:6.26% B:0.31%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.600..+0.630) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/15 eq:+0.575 (-0.040)
Player: 63.19% (G:18.51% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 36.81% (G:6.07% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.561..+0.590) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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