novaBBS - rec.games.backgammon - Rollout: Attack or prime?

Attack or prime?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Attack or prime?
Date: Mon, 14 Mar 2022 08:33:10 -0400
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by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 14 Mar 2022 12:33 UTC

XGID=-a-BB-EAA---bB-c-c-cBab---:1:-1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O O | +---+
| X O O | | O X O | | 2 |
| O O | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 125 O: 132 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 42

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Attack or prime?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Attack or prime?
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by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 16 Mar 2022 13:30 UTC

XGID=-a-BB-EAA---bB-c-c-cBab---:1:-1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

Sometimes you will heard the adage, "Attack one checker, prime two
checkers." That adage would suggest 7/1*, but the rollout below says
7/1* is a whopper with cheese. It's a little too easy for O to escape
her straggler if X plays 7/1*, and it risks losing more pips in a
fairly close race. Making the bar creates a permanent asset.

1. Rollout¹ 13/7 eq:+0.008
Player: 54.74% (G:15.57% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 45.26% (G:6.43% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (0.000..+0.015) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 7/3 6/4 eq:-0.070 (-0.077)
Player: 52.04% (G:14.17% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 47.96% (G:6.76% B:0.30%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.077..-0.062) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 7/1* eq:-0.121 (-0.129)
Player: 49.97% (G:16.20% B:0.25%)
Opponent: 50.03% (G:7.97% B:0.37%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.130..-0.112) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Many people resent being treated like the person they really are.

interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Attack or prime?

Subject	Author
Attack or prime?	Timothy Chow
Rollout: Attack or prime?	Timothy Chow