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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Locking up the game

SubjectAuthor
* Locking up the gameTimothy Chow
`- Rollout: Locking up the gameTimothy Chow

1
Locking up the game

<t14l4n$i31$2@dont-email.me>

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https://www.novabbs.com/interests/article-flat.php?id=8380&group=rec.games.backgammon#8380

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Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!reader02.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Locking up the game
Date: Sat, 19 Mar 2022 09:17:08 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 19 Mar 2022 13:17 UTC

XGID=aBBB-CB--D----a----cbbbbb-:1:-1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| X | | |
| X | | X |
| X | | X X X X X |
| X | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 75 O: 84 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 11

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Locking up the game

<t19ora$rrb$1@dont-email.me>

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Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!reader02.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Locking up the game
Date: Mon, 21 Mar 2022 07:51:04 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 21 Mar 2022 11:51 UTC

XGID=aBBB-CB--D----a----cbbbbb-:1:-1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| X | | |
| X | | X |
| X | | X X X X X |
| X | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 75 O: 84 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 11

9/7(2) leaves no return shots and gives X builders on three separate
points to make the 4pt. 9/8 9/6 gives O the joker 44 from the bar but
gives X builders on four separate points. I opted for 9/7(2) but XG
favors 9/8 9/6. In the variant below, the bold play gives O two rolls
that hit, and XG favors the safe 9/7(2).

1. Rollout¹ 9/8 9/6 eq:+0.739
Player: 86.94% (G:3.04% B:0.03%)
Opponent: 13.06% (G:0.39% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.736..+0.742) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 9/7(2) eq:+0.687 (-0.052)
Player: 85.23% (G:2.14% B:0.02%)
Opponent: 14.77% (G:0.18% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.683..+0.690) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=aBB-BCB--D----a----cbbbbb-:1:-1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| X | | |
| X | | X |
| X | | X X X X X |
| X | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 77 O: 84 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 11

1. Rollout¹ 9/7(2) eq:+0.731
Player: 86.93% (G:2.68% B:0.02%)
Opponent: 13.07% (G:0.37% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.728..+0.735) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 9/8(2) 4/3(2) eq:+0.708 (-0.024)
Player: 85.97% (G:2.47% B:0.02%)
Opponent: 14.03% (G:0.30% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.705..+0.711) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 9/8 9/6 eq:+0.694 (-0.037)
Player: 84.47% (G:3.22% B:0.02%)
Opponent: 15.53% (G:0.81% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.691..+0.697) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 9/6 5/4 eq:+0.681 (-0.050)
Player: 84.26% (G:2.83% B:0.02%)
Opponent: 15.74% (G:0.54% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.678..+0.685) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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