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interests / rec.games.backgammon / What's the fourth 3?

SubjectAuthor
* What's the fourth 3?Timothy Chow
`- Rollout: What's the fourth 3?Timothy Chow

1
What's the fourth 3?

<t19ot4$rrb$2@dont-email.me>

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Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!reader02.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: What's the fourth 3?
Date: Mon, 21 Mar 2022 07:52:04 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 21 Mar 2022 11:52 UTC

XGID=-a---aE-E---dC-a-a-cb--bAA:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X |
| X | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 158 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 33

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: What's the fourth 3?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: What's the fourth 3?
Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2022 09:21:29 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 23 Mar 2022 13:21 UTC

XGID=-a---aE-E---dC-a-a-cb--bAA:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X |
| X | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 158 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 33

Is it an oxymoron to blitz cautiously? With ten checkers in the zone
and potentially two more of O's blots to pick up, X has some serious
blitzing potential in this position. At the same time, O has a
three-point board and X has two blots, so the game could turn around
in a heartbeat. According to the rollout, XG recommends the
conservative 8/5 for the fourth 3.

The variant below is less double-edged, and XG says that 24/21 is
also a viable fourth 3.

1. Rollout¹ Bar/22 8/5*(3) eq:+0.297
Player: 55.98% (G:22.12% B:1.58%)
Opponent: 44.02% (G:14.70% B:0.62%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.283..+0.312) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/22 13/10 8/5*(2) eq:+0.205 (-0.092)
Player: 54.55% (G:21.12% B:1.67%)
Opponent: 45.45% (G:16.04% B:0.87%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.190..+0.220) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ Bar/22 24/21 8/5*(2) eq:+0.184 (-0.113)
Player: 53.83% (G:20.37% B:1.63%)
Opponent: 46.17% (G:17.19% B:0.55%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.169..+0.199) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-a---aE-E---dC---b-cb--bAA:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 158 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 33

1. Rollout¹ Bar/22 8/5*(3) eq:+0.075
Player: 51.55% (G:18.47% B:0.94%)
Opponent: 48.45% (G:16.15% B:0.67%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.068..+0.082) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/22 24/21 8/5*(2) eq:+0.055 (-0.020)
Player: 51.56% (G:16.05% B:0.81%)
Opponent: 48.44% (G:15.83% B:0.53%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.048..+0.063) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ Bar/22 13/10 8/5*(2) eq:+0.014 (-0.061)
Player: 50.35% (G:18.21% B:1.03%)
Opponent: 49.65% (G:17.37% B:0.98%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.007..+0.022) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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