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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: 44 to play

SubjectAuthor
* 44 to playTimothy Chow
+- Re: 44 to playpeps...@gmail.com
`- Rollout: 44 to playTimothy Chow

1
44 to play

<t176sa$8gr$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: 44 to play
Date: Sun, 20 Mar 2022 08:32:10 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 20 Mar 2022 12:32 UTC

XGID=-A-aBbDBCa--a---Ab-bcb-aB-:1:1:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O X |
| O | | O O O X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X | +---+
| X X | | X O X | | 2 |
| O O X X | | X O X O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 135 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 44

---
Tim Chow

Re: 44 to play

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Subject: Re: 44 to play
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Sun, 20 Mar 2022 15:26 UTC

On Sunday, March 20, 2022 at 12:32:12 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
> XGID=-A-aBbDBCa--a---Ab-bcb-aB-:1:1:1:44:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O | | O O O O X |
> | O | | O O O X |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | X | | X | +---+
> | X X | | X O X | | 2 |
> | O O X X | | X O X O X | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 135 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X to play 44
Well, what would Art Benjamin play?
It seems that we hit and cover where possible.
So 7/3(2) 16/12.
But then we have another 4 to play.
I think blitzing is absolutely the correct game plan here.
So my final four is 8/4 hoping to cover the ace and preserving my
shot at the 9 point blot.

Paul

Rollout: 44 to play

<t1chnh$vdg$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: 44 to play
Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2022 09:07:59 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 22 Mar 2022 13:07 UTC

XGID=-A-aBbDBCa--a---Ab-bcb-aB-:1:1:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O X |
| O | | O O O X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X | +---+
| X X | | X O X | | 2 |
| O O X X | | X O X O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 135 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 44

Don't really have anything to add to Paul's analysis. Despite O's
anchor and strong board, X's best game plan here is to blitz. In a
blitz, it is often better to make another home-board point rather
than hit a second checker, but usually not when it's a deep point
behind the opponent's anchor. After 16/12* 7/3*(2), lifting with
12/8 is also the wrong idea, since X should be focusing on the
upside and not the downside.

1. Rollout¹ 16/12* 8/4 7/3*(2) eq:+0.541
Player: 56.38% (G:37.54% B:2.03%)
Opponent: 43.62% (G:13.83% B:1.00%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.529..+0.553) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 16/12* 12/8 7/3*(2) eq:+0.323 (-0.218)
Player: 50.55% (G:27.98% B:1.38%)
Opponent: 49.45% (G:14.94% B:0.78%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.306..+0.339) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 16/12* 7/3*(2) 6/2 eq:+0.258 (-0.283)
Player: 50.07% (G:30.31% B:1.70%)
Opponent: 49.93% (G:19.04% B:1.83%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.245..+0.271) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 7/3*(2) 6/2(2) eq:+0.231 (-0.310)
Player: 46.87% (G:27.79% B:1.58%)
Opponent: 53.13% (G:19.67% B:1.52%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.215..+0.247) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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