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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Blitz versus prime cube action

SubjectAuthor
* Blitz versus prime cube actionTimothy Chow
`- Rollout: Blitz versus prime cube actionTimothy Chow

1
Blitz versus prime cube action

<t1chon$vdg$2@dont-email.me>

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https://www.novabbs.com/interests/article-flat.php?id=8388&group=rec.games.backgammon#8388

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Blitz versus prime cube action
Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2022 09:08:39 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 22 Mar 2022 13:08 UTC

XGID=a-BACBBC--Aa-----bcbb-bAb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O X O |
| O O | | O O O O |
| O | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| X | | X X X X |
| O X X | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 95 O: 106 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Blitz versus prime cube action

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Blitz versus prime cube action
Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2022 09:25:47 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 24 Mar 2022 13:25 UTC

XGID=a-BACBBC--Aa-----bcbb-bAb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O X O |
| O O | | O O O O |
| O | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| X | | X X X X |
| O X X | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 95 O: 106 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Cube decisions like this one are treacherous. I dropped this one, but
XG says it's an easy take. With more ways to cover the blot, this could
turn into a drop or something close to a drop (see variant).

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 66.08% (G:23.53% B:0.33%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.92% (G:6.44% B:0.20%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.51% (G:23.47% B:0.34%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.49% (G:6.57% B:0.20%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.635 (-0.130)
Double/Take: +0.764
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.236)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.008 (+0.627..+0.642)
Confidence Double: ± 0.012 (+0.752..+0.777)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=a-BACBCB--Aa-----bcbb-bAb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O X O |
| O O | | O O O O |
| O | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| X | | X X X X |
| O X X | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 94 O: 106 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 69.13% (G:26.57% B:0.38%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.87% (G:4.92% B:0.19%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 69.50% (G:26.36% B:0.37%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.50% (G:5.10% B:0.21%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.785 (-0.194)
Double/Take: +0.978
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.022)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.004 (+0.781..+0.789)
Confidence Double: ± 0.006 (+0.972..+0.985)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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