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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Buy now?

SubjectAuthor
* Buy now?Timothy Chow
`* Rollout: Buy now?Timothy Chow
 `* Re: Rollout: Buy now?Stick Rice
  +- Re: Rollout: Buy now?Timothy Chow
  `- Re: Rollout: Buy now?peps...@gmail.com

1
Buy now?

<t1hrim$lpn$3@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Buy now?
Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2022 09:26:45 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 24 Mar 2022 13:26 UTC

XGID=----B-DCDa--b---abBbcb-b--:1:1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O O O O |
| O X | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| X X | | X | +---+
| O X X | | X X | | 2 |
| O O X X | | X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 121 O: 106 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 21

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Buy now?

<t1o0c8$u3d$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Buy now?
Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2022 17:25:24 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 26 Mar 2022 21:25 UTC

XGID=----B-DCDa--b---abBbcb-b--:1:1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O O O O |
| O X | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| X X | | X | +---+
| O X X | | X X | | 2 |
| O O X X | | X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 121 O: 106 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 21

Hitting is the DMP play, but does it lose too many gammons? XG thinks
so, although 18/16*/15 fares a bit better in the rollout than it does
upon preliminary evaluation. It is not hard to find variants which
swing the play (one is shown below).

Of course this is not an exception to Stick's DMP rule since there are
no exceptions to that rule.

1. Rollout¹ 7/5 6/5 eq:-0.178
Player: 35.52% (G:2.44% B:0.11%)
Opponent: 64.48% (G:1.71% B:0.04%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.183..-0.173) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 18/16* 16/15 eq:-0.246 (-0.068)
Player: 39.71% (G:8.23% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 60.29% (G:28.17% B:0.51%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.254..-0.238) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/5 eq:-0.252 (-0.074)
Player: 32.84% (G:1.78% B:0.06%)
Opponent: 67.16% (G:1.85% B:0.07%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.257..-0.247) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 18/16* 8/7 eq:-0.337 (-0.158)
Player: 37.39% (G:8.16% B:0.48%)
Opponent: 62.61% (G:30.75% B:0.63%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.346..-0.327) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=----B-DCDa--b---abBbbbba--:1:1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O O O O O |
| O X | | O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| X X | | X | +---+
| O X X | | X X | | 2 |
| O O X X | | X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 121 O: 105 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 21

1. Rollout¹ 18/16* 16/15 eq:-0.160
Player: 41.55% (G:11.27% B:0.78%)
Opponent: 58.45% (G:27.14% B:0.56%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.169..-0.151) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 7/5 6/5 eq:-0.191 (-0.031)
Player: 35.12% (G:2.54% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 64.88% (G:2.14% B:0.05%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.197..-0.186) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: Buy now?

<3fbaffb8-5db7-44b3-ba0a-5f0e650c9899n@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: Rollout: Buy now?
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Mon, 28 Mar 2022 20:59 UTC

On Saturday, March 26, 2022 at 5:25:29 PM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:
> XGID=----B-DCDa--b---abBbcb-b--:1:1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | O O X | | O O O O |
> | O X | | O O O O |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | X | | X |
> | X X | | X | +---+
> | O X X | | X X | | 2 |
> | O O X X | | X X | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 121 O: 106 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X to play 21
> Hitting is the DMP play, but does it lose too many gammons? XG thinks
> so, although 18/16*/15 fares a bit better in the rollout than it does
> upon preliminary evaluation. It is not hard to find variants which
> swing the play (one is shown below).
>
> Of course this is not an exception to Stick's DMP rule since there are
> no exceptions to that rule.
>
> 1. Rollout¹ 7/5 6/5 eq:-0.178
> Player: 35.52% (G:2.44% B:0.11%)
> Opponent: 64.48% (G:1.71% B:0.04%)
> Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.183..-0.173) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 18/16* 16/15 eq:-0.246 (-0.068)
> Player: 39.71% (G:8.23% B:0.38%)
> Opponent: 60.29% (G:28.17% B:0.51%)
> Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.254..-0.238) - [0.0%]
>
> 3. Rollout¹ 8/5 eq:-0.252 (-0.074)
> Player: 32.84% (G:1.78% B:0.06%)
> Opponent: 67.16% (G:1.85% B:0.07%)
> Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.257..-0.247) - [0.0%]
>
> 4. Rollout¹ 18/16* 8/7 eq:-0.337 (-0.158)
> Player: 37.39% (G:8.16% B:0.48%)
> Opponent: 62.61% (G:30.75% B:0.63%)
> Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.346..-0.327) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
>
> -------
> Variant
> -------
>
> XGID=----B-DCDa--b---abBbbbba--:1:1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | O O X | | O O O O O |
> | O X | | O O O O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | X | | X |
> | X X | | X | +---+
> | O X X | | X X | | 2 |
> | O O X X | | X X | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 121 O: 105 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X to play 21
> 1. Rollout¹ 18/16* 16/15 eq:-0.160
> Player: 41.55% (G:11.27% B:0.78%)
> Opponent: 58.45% (G:27.14% B:0.56%)
> Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.169..-0.151) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 7/5 6/5 eq:-0.191 (-0.031)
> Player: 35.12% (G:2.54% B:0.10%)
> Opponent: 64.88% (G:2.14% B:0.05%)
> Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.197..-0.186) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

It could be an exception if the rule is totally new to you. It shouldn't be an exception if you've studied it, put it into play, and actually use it on a consistent basis...then it is fairly obvious. So you're right, for me it's not. For you maybe it is because you've never really tried to understand it and use it as should be done.

Stick

Re: Rollout: Buy now?

<t1uvp8$csb$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Rollout: Buy now?
Date: Tue, 29 Mar 2022 08:58:16 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 29 Mar 2022 12:58 UTC

On 3/28/2022 4:59 PM, Stick Rice wrote:
> For you maybe it is because you've never really tried to understand it and use it as should be done.

It's not an exception for me because there are no exceptions.

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: Buy now?

<604f385f-2683-499e-9ca0-6c998ef00e6cn@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: Rollout: Buy now?
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Wed, 30 Mar 2022 10:12 UTC

On Monday, March 28, 2022 at 9:59:22 PM UTC+1, Stick Rice wrote:
> On Saturday, March 26, 2022 at 5:25:29 PM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:
> > XGID=----B-DCDa--b---abBbcb-b--:1:1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10
> >
> > X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | O O X | | O O O O |
> > | O X | | O O O O |
> > | | | O |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | | |
> > | X | | X |
> > | X X | | X | +---+
> > | O X X | | X X | | 2 |
> > | O O X X | | X X | +---+
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 121 O: 106 X-O: 0-0
> > Cube: 2, X own cube
> > X to play 21
> > Hitting is the DMP play, but does it lose too many gammons? XG thinks
> > so, although 18/16*/15 fares a bit better in the rollout than it does
> > upon preliminary evaluation. It is not hard to find variants which
> > swing the play (one is shown below).
> >
> > Of course this is not an exception to Stick's DMP rule since there are
> > no exceptions to that rule.
> >
> > 1. Rollout¹ 7/5 6/5 eq:-0.178
> > Player: 35.52% (G:2.44% B:0.11%)
> > Opponent: 64.48% (G:1.71% B:0.04%)
> > Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.183..-0.173) - [100.0%]
> >
> > 2. Rollout¹ 18/16* 16/15 eq:-0.246 (-0.068)
> > Player: 39.71% (G:8.23% B:0.38%)
> > Opponent: 60.29% (G:28.17% B:0.51%)
> > Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.254..-0.238) - [0.0%]
> >
> > 3. Rollout¹ 8/5 eq:-0.252 (-0.074)
> > Player: 32.84% (G:1.78% B:0.06%)
> > Opponent: 67.16% (G:1.85% B:0.07%)
> > Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.257..-0.247) - [0.0%]
> >
> > 4. Rollout¹ 18/16* 8/7 eq:-0.337 (-0.158)
> > Player: 37.39% (G:8.16% B:0.48%)
> > Opponent: 62.61% (G:30.75% B:0.63%)
> > Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.346..-0.327) - [0.0%]
> >
> > ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> > Dice Seed: 271828
> > Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
> >
> > eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
> >
> > -------
> > Variant
> > -------
> >
> > XGID=----B-DCDa--b---abBbbbba--:1:1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10
> > X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | O O X | | O O O O O |
> > | O X | | O O O O |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | | |
> > | X | | X |
> > | X X | | X | +---+
> > | O X X | | X X | | 2 |
> > | O O X X | | X X | +---+
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 121 O: 105 X-O: 0-0
> > Cube: 2, X own cube
> > X to play 21
> > 1. Rollout¹ 18/16* 16/15 eq:-0.160
> > Player: 41.55% (G:11.27% B:0.78%)
> > Opponent: 58.45% (G:27.14% B:0.56%)
> > Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.169..-0.151) - [100.0%]
> >
> > 2. Rollout¹ 7/5 6/5 eq:-0.191 (-0.031)
> > Player: 35.12% (G:2.54% B:0.10%)
> > Opponent: 64.88% (G:2.14% B:0.05%)
> > Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.197..-0.186) - [0.0%]
> >
> > ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> > Dice Seed: 271828
> > Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
> >
> > eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
> >
> > ---
> > Tim Chow
> It could be an exception if the rule is totally new to you. It shouldn't be an exception if you've studied it, put it into play, and actually use it on a consistent basis...then it is fairly obvious. So you're right, for me it's not. For you maybe it is because you've never really tried to understand it and use it as should be done.
>
> Stick

I think I have made a good-faith attempt to understand it. I personally don't find this rule helpful.
I do think that your articles/lessons etc are very good.
I wouldn't say I've "studied it" because, to me, that would imply (at the very least) reading books which refer to it, or reading articles about it etc.
How would I (or Tim) study it?
I understand Tim has done an excellent job of studying combinatorial game theory (and much else) and contributing to the literature on it.
BG doesn't seem a million miles away from that, so I think we would study it if we had more pointers to effective studying tools.

Paul

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