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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Re: I'd like to act here as an unreliable narrator

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* I'd like to act here as an unreliable narratorpeps...@gmail.com
`* Re: I'd like to act here as an unreliable narratorTimothy Chow
 `- Re: I'd like to act here as an unreliable narratorpeps...@gmail.com

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I'd like to act here as an unreliable narrator

<75f919e0-d0a5-40fe-b648-6bbbaf1abe2fn@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: I'd like to act here as an unreliable narrator
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Sat, 26 Mar 2022 08:22 UTC

In the position below, I found the play clear.
However, I'm surprised at the negative equity.
I think most players would prefer my position,
and so I could offer to settle even and gain a good settlement.

How am I acting as an unreliable narrator?
There are (at least) two sources of unreliability as follows:
1) I haven't done a rollout.
2) Maybe I'm wrong about what people would expect and
everyone prefers XG's position after my play.

Mr. Unrelliable

XGID=aDDBA-B---b--B-----bbbbbb-:1:-1:1:64:6:0:3:0:10
X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

Score is X:6 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O O | +---+
| X | | O O O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X X |
| | | X X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 60 O: 97 X-O: 6-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64

1. 4-ply 13/9 13/7 eq:-0.078
Player: 55.65% (G:5.82% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 44.35% (G:21.08% B:1.35%)

2. 4-ply 13/3 eq:-0.122 (-0.043)
Player: 50.23% (G:4.82% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 49.77% (G:13.84% B:0.42%)

3. 1-ply 13/7 6/2 eq:-1.390 (-1.312)
Player: 20.39% (G:1.90% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 79.61% (G:65.61% B:5.26%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Re: I'd like to act here as an unreliable narrator

<t1nvb5$mgk$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: I'd like to act here as an unreliable narrator
Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2022 17:07:45 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 26 Mar 2022 21:07 UTC

On 3/26/2022 4:22 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> In the position below, I found the play clear.
> However, I'm surprised at the negative equity.
> I think most players would prefer my position,
> and so I could offer to settle even and gain a good settlement.

Very interesting position. If the cube were centered then the
rollout below suggests that it would be a borderline Kauder Paradox
after your play.

XGID=aDDBA-BA-Ab--------bbbbbb-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
| | | O O O O O O |
| | | O O O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X X |
| | | X X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O X X | | X X X X X |
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
Pip count X: 50 O: 97 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
O on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 44.05% (G:19.48% B:1.19%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 55.95% (G:4.88% B:0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 44.39% (G:21.02% B:1.23%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 55.61% (G:5.22% B:0.00%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.039, Double=+0.116

Cubeful Equities:
No double: -0.278 (-0.002)
Double/Beaver: -0.276
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+1.276)

Best Cube action: Double / Beaver

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Huge
Confidence No Double: ± 0.000 (-0.278..-0.278)
Confidence Double: ± 0.006 (-0.282..-0.270)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: I'd like to act here as an unreliable narrator

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Subject: Re: I'd like to act here as an unreliable narrator
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Sat, 26 Mar 2022 23:36 UTC

On Saturday, March 26, 2022 at 9:07:50 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
> On 3/26/2022 4:22 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> > In the position below, I found the play clear.
> > However, I'm surprised at the negative equity.
> > I think most players would prefer my position,
> > and so I could offer to settle even and gain a good settlement.
> Very interesting position. If the cube were centered then the
> rollout below suggests that it would be a borderline Kauder Paradox
> after your play.
>
> XGID=aDDBA-BA-Ab--------bbbbbb-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> | | | O O O O O O |
> | | | O O O O O O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | O | |
> | | | X X |
> | | | X X |
> | O | | X X X X |
> | O X X | | X X X X X |
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> Pip count X: 50 O: 97 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> O on roll, cube action
>
> Analyzed in Rollout
> No double
> Player Winning Chances: 44.05% (G:19.48% B:1.19%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 55.95% (G:4.88% B:0.00%)
> Double/Take
> Player Winning Chances: 44.39% (G:21.02% B:1.23%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 55.61% (G:5.22% B:0.00%)
>
> Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.039, Double=+0.116
>
> Cubeful Equities:
> No double: -0.278 (-0.002)
> Double/Beaver: -0.276
> Double/Pass: +1.000 (+1.276)
>
> Best Cube action: Double / Beaver
>
> Rollout:
> 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller+
> Search interval: Huge
> Confidence No Double: ± 0.000 (-0.278..-0.278)
> Confidence Double: ± 0.006 (-0.282..-0.270)
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

In practice, it's probably quite a big double because the opponent might not beaver.

Paul

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