novaBBS - rec.games.backgammon - Re: Rollout: Early(ish) blitz cube action

Early(ish) blitz cube action

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Early(ish) blitz cube action
Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2022 17:26:39 -0400
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by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 26 Mar 2022 21:26 UTC

XGID=bB--BAC-B--AcB---abcb-b-B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 134 O: 145 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

Re: Early(ish) blitz cube action

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Subject: Re: Early(ish) blitz cube action
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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by: peps...@gmail.com - Sun, 27 Mar 2022 00:28 UTC

On Saturday, March 26, 2022 at 9:26:43 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
> XGID=bB--BAC-B--AcB---abcb-b-B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 2 O:Player 1
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O O X |
> | X O | | O O O X |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | O | |
> | | O | |
> | O | | X |
> | O X | | X X X |
> | O X X | | X X X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 134 O: 145 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action
>

A clear double with two in the air.
I would take this, but without much confidence.
Extricating those back men can be difficult and we don't have much ammunition at the front.
If X can move a back checker and simultaneously cover the 5 point blot, X will normally lose
market hugely. So it is a double.

Mr. Take-Blitz-Cubes

Rollout: Early(ish) blitz cube action

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Early(ish) blitz cube action
Date: Mon, 28 Mar 2022 09:57:15 -0400
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by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 28 Mar 2022 13:57 UTC

XGID=bB--BAC-B--AcB---abcb-b-B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

I had some trouble judging O's defensive potential here since I
didn't have a good reference position memorized. If I had had
to guess, I would have guessed that X would win a little over
40% gammons from here, but according to the rollout, it's close
to 50%. Move O's outfield blot back to the midpoint and XG
says it's a take.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 65.47% (G:47.94% B:1.68%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.53% (G:10.07% B:0.77%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.79% (G:48.51% B:1.50%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.21% (G:10.18% B:0.80%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.841 (-0.159)
Double/Take: +1.146 (+0.146)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.014 (+0.827..+0.855)
Confidence Double: ± 0.020 (+1.126..+1.165)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=bB--BAC-B--AdB----bcb-b-B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| O | O | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 134 O: 150 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 63.48% (G:44.82% B:0.49%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.52% (G:10.52% B:0.74%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.87% (G:45.69% B:0.41%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.13% (G:10.72% B:0.76%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.778 (-0.191)
Double/Take: +0.968
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.032)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.012 (+0.765..+0.790)
Confidence Double: ± 0.017 (+0.951..+0.986)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: Early(ish) blitz cube action

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Subject: Re: Rollout: Early(ish) blitz cube action
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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by: peps...@gmail.com - Mon, 28 Mar 2022 16:27 UTC

On Monday, March 28, 2022 at 2:57:19 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
> XGID=bB--BAC-B--AcB---abcb-b-B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 2 O:Player 1
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O O X |
> | X O | | O O O X |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | O | |
> | | O | |
> | O | | X |
> | O X | | X X X |
> | O X X | | X X X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 134 O: 145 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action
> I had some trouble judging O's defensive potential here since I
> didn't have a good reference position memorized. If I had had
> to guess, I would have guessed that X would win a little over
> 40% gammons from here, but according to the rollout, it's close
> to 50%. Move O's outfield blot back to the midpoint and XG
> says it's a take.
>
> Analyzed in Rollout
> No double
> Player Winning Chances: 65.47% (G:47.94% B:1.68%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 34.53% (G:10.07% B:0.77%)
> Double/Take
> Player Winning Chances: 65.79% (G:48.51% B:1.50%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 34.21% (G:10.18% B:0.80%)
>
> Cubeful Equities:
> No double: +0.841 (-0.159)
> Double/Take: +1.146 (+0.146)
> Double/Pass: +1.000
>
> Best Cube action: Double / Pass
>
> Rollout:
> 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
> Confidence No Double: ± 0.014 (+0.827..+0.855)
> Confidence Double: ± 0.020 (+1.126..+1.165)
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
>
> -------
> Variant
> -------
>
> XGID=bB--BAC-B--AdB----bcb-b-B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
> X:Player 2 O:Player 1
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O | | O O O X |
> | X O | | O O O X |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | O | |
> | O | O | |
> | O | | X |
> | O X | | X X X |
> | O X X | | X X X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 134 O: 150 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action
> Analyzed in Rollout
> No double
> Player Winning Chances: 63.48% (G:44.82% B:0.49%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 36.52% (G:10.52% B:0.74%)
> Double/Take
> Player Winning Chances: 63.87% (G:45.69% B:0.41%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 36.13% (G:10.72% B:0.76%)
>
> Cubeful Equities:
> No double: +0.778 (-0.191)
> Double/Take: +0.968
> Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.032)
>

It's a good problem together with its variant.
Someone drunk in a pub in Essex, drowning her sorrows in beer after
her football team has been knocked out of the FA cup, might misconstrue
the difference in the two positions exactly the other way, and assume that the variant is
worse for the underdog because of the lost opportunity to make the 8 point.
I know it's hard to believe that someone would show such a basic misunderstanding,
but alcohol combined with grief can addle one's thinking.
There's a price to be paid for putting the clocks forward in that people can now start drinking earlier.

Paul

I am looking for a honest man. -- Diogenes the Cynic

interests / rec.games.backgammon / Re: Rollout: Early(ish) blitz cube action

Subject	Author
Early(ish) blitz cube action	Timothy Chow
Re: Early(ish) blitz cube action	peps...@gmail.com
Rollout: Early(ish) blitz cube action	Timothy Chow
Re: Rollout: Early(ish) blitz cube action	peps...@gmail.com