XGID=-B-B-bB-C--AeC---c-cBb----:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O |
| X O | | O X O |
| X O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O X | | |
| O X | | X O X X |
| O X X | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 134 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

Typically, in a mutual holding game, one doesn't volunteer a direct
shot if the safe play is "reasonable." Here I played 11/2 OTB and
admittedly XG says it's only a 0.045 error, which is not huge, but
it did surprise me that XG favors 13/7 11/8, which not only volunteers
a direct shot but doesn't look that attractive distributionally. But
O will not hit with a 21, and after my play of 11/2, the blot on the
2pt means that O's blot-leaving rolls aren't as bad as they would be
otherwise.

For comparison, in the variant, I have changed the roll to 61.

1. Rollout¹ 13/7 11/8 eq:+0.164
Player: 54.30% (G:11.81% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 45.70% (G:7.55% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.153..+0.175) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 11/2 eq:+0.119 (-0.045)
Player: 53.50% (G:10.58% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 46.50% (G:8.81% B:0.37%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.107..+0.132) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/4 eq:+0.118 (-0.046)
Player: 52.92% (G:12.65% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 47.08% (G:7.72% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.106..+0.130) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 20/11 eq:+0.102 (-0.062)
Player: 52.93% (G:10.87% B:0.26%)
Opponent: 47.07% (G:11.27% B:0.35%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.087..+0.117) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-B-B-bB-C--AeC---c-cBb----:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O |
| X O | | O X O |
| X O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O X | | |
| O X | | X O X X |
| O X X | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 134 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61

1. Rollout¹ 11/4 eq:+0.164
Player: 54.73% (G:10.36% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 45.27% (G:7.90% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.152..+0.175) - [96.6%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/7 8/7 eq:+0.149 (-0.015)
Player: 53.57% (G:12.53% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 46.43% (G:7.30% B:0.31%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.138..+0.159) - [3.2%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/6 eq:+0.140 (-0.023)
Player: 53.44% (G:12.01% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 46.56% (G:7.52% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.129..+0.152) - [0.2%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow