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A likely impossibility is always preferable to an unconvincing possibility. -- Aristotle

interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Six-primed

Six-primed

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Six-primed
Date: Sat, 16 Apr 2022 11:32:06 -0400
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by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 16 Apr 2022 15:32 UTC

XGID=-AB-aBBBB----BA---bbcbbbaA:1:1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O O O O |
| X O | | O O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| X X | | X X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X X O X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 122 O: 81 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 11

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Six-primed

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
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Subject: Rollout: Six-primed
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by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 18 Apr 2022 14:19 UTC

XGID=-AB-aBBBB----BA---bbcbbbaA:1:1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

Killing checkers on the 1pt, especially in a priming battle, goes
against the grain. On the other hand, X's chances for building a
counter-prime are remote if he gets hit on the 1pt.

1. Rollout¹ Bar/24* 13/12 2/1(2) eq:-0.747
Player: 24.01% (G:4.50% B:0.16%)
Opponent: 75.99% (G:35.17% B:2.10%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.756..-0.739) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/24* 14/13 2/1(2) eq:-0.809 (-0.061)
Player: 19.76% (G:3.51% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 80.24% (G:31.15% B:0.69%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.817..-0.801) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ Bar/24* 14/11 eq:-0.849 (-0.101)
Player: 21.89% (G:4.27% B:0.18%)
Opponent: 78.11% (G:40.08% B:1.69%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.857..-0.841) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ Bar/24* 14/12 13/12 eq:-0.858 (-0.110)
Player: 21.50% (G:4.16% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 78.50% (G:40.00% B:1.53%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.866..-0.849) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Subject	Author
Six-primed	Timothy Chow
Rollout: Six-primed	Timothy Chow